If 2018 has been a constant, it has been a bad year for everybody in May. What will happen next year? Economists and business advisors have agreed that they will be heterogeneous and offer different results for each quarter, per country region, per sector and per company.
In fact, there are some non-dreams of projecting for the future, but recovery in the world of consultants will be slow, different and depend on many factors.
Juan Pablo Ronderos, Director of Abeceb Commercial, after crossing this city called the Foreign Trade Chamber (Cacec), believes that the government stabilized the economy, but spent less on operations, which will close the year by 2.4 percent below 2017
The counselor will be as bad as this year in the next quarter; The second will be the reorganization of a few sectors and, after half a year, the growth will be homogeneous.
The remaining 0.5% of the economy will reach 2019, if the first deficit is closed, the current account deficit has been reduced, inflation has slowed down and interest rates declined, in the context of social tensions and election policies.
"The government has no fiscal capacity and has little margin of application for active policies, everything depends on private activity," Ronderosk said.
The recovery motorization is expected to be the first agricultural sector, which requires more than 38% of Cordoba's 2017/2018 harvest. However, Juan Manuel Garzón, chief economist at Ieral, will limit emissions.
"There is a lack of four months left to harvest, in the province there were 25 million tonnes a year ago, if the weather goes by, it will have 10 million tonnes more, which will provide $ 1,500 million and $ 2,000 million, with the Córdoba economy gradually moving from April to May" he explained.
It should be taken into account that prices are 10% higher than the 2017 average, with 10 million tonnes of exploitation lost in 2000, and the producer is making a great deal of work, as a means of upgrading machinery and purchasing revenue, and conservative in other investments.
The agrarian sector will perform even more heterogeneous performance. "Exporting companies will have a good 2019, but not everything that depends on the exchange-rate competitiveness. Refrigerators sold abroad abroad are missing animals, for example," he adds.
Another factor is Jair Bolsonaro, the elected Brazilian President, whose economy is to rebuild the Argentine industry, which accounts for 40% of its exports.
Abeceb projects Gross Domestic Product in Brazil (GDP) grew 1.2% and 1.4% this year and 2.5% in 2019.
"The GDP of Brazil is five times lower than the 2014 peak, so the recovery of the lost is only growing without investment. In addition, Brazil consumes and buys the car because it has not been used for a long time and finances low interest rates, which was not common," says Ronderos by yourself
The Government 2019 equals the 23 percent increase in the revision clause, which projects inflation.
The Central Bank diminishes the interest rate rarely and the margin is not changing its monetary policy. In addition, the Ministry of Economy does not reduce the fiscal pressure of the zero deficit promise.
For this reason, we do not expect the purchase of consumer purchasing power back this year. It will only be possible to recover at the end of 2019 if the inflation is two tenths per month.
For this reason, the recovery of industries and businesses that depend on the domestic market will be exhausting and will have a commitment to the global trend.
"Traditional commerce is having problems millennials and centennial They do not go shopping to a mall or hypermarket, like in the 90s. They spend more space and entertainment on experiences, gastronomy, travel, health and more education, "says Oscar Piccardo, President 1Por1, a specialist in consumer advice.
This year, a lot of balances are lost. To rebuild them, companies work. Alberto Asensio, a member of the PWC's deputy head of the offices of Córdoba, Mendoza and Rosario, is a "different field" and a different company.
"In human resources, each incorporation is carefully studied according to a strategic plan, and they do not see any plan of any kind in the fiscal area, they take advantage of accumulated accumulated fiscal pockets to finance themselves," says experts.
Also, this year, the international consultative "five hundred" has made the number of cases of inflation adjustments in business accounts for non-rental inflation.
"The key is to reduce fixed costs, for example, staying a lot stock; If you prefer to keep merchandise up to 70 percent in order to download offers or offers. This happens with automotive news, it is repeated in other areas, "he says.
The digitalisation process of the companies put a handbrake, but it was not reversed. For this reason, the members of the Cordova Technology Cluster will close an annual increase of around 10 percent, five points less than the forecast.
13 thousand jobs and nearly 400 companies, more than $ 600 million in turnover, have exported 80 million, which explains a part of this growth.
"The progress in foreign markets will be noticeable by 2019. Until the year 2017, the sector was not competitive, but many companies are looking for markets abroad to compensate for losses in the country this year," says Diego Casali, CTC President.
In the home market, he adds, it is expected that in March or April they will revive their projects.
In this, he projects: "Artificial intelligence, things internet, robotics and blockchain Automation lines, reduce costs and streamline processes; That's why companies are already performing; Maturity will be between 2019 and 2020. "
Projections in Argentina and Brazil
Forecasts of Abeceb in both countries.
2.4% The Argentine economy is one that would have fallen a year, which has suffered losses in all sectors of activity.
0.5% That would contract the national economy in 2019, the bad first half and the second to recover the activity.
2.5% Brazil grows in 2019. This year will open between 1.2 and 1.4 points. In advance, it is the key to the Argentine industry.
The original text of this article was published on 12/30/2018 in our print edition.