In this context, the program's revision and fulfillment are essential for the coverage of public debt services in the fast currency and in fragile stability. But a million-dollar question is whether the agreed plan can have a successful outcome.
The crossroads in Argentina are complex: the peak of GDP is in 2011; 10% unemployment on the shore; The double inflation rate of a decade has come together with annual inflation; Productive investment is limited and infrastructure is scarce; Half of young people and public education do not have equal opportunities; The level of exports is limited and concentrated in agricultural products; import dependence is great; tax pressure and fiscal deficit are recorded; and debts that last two years, The public debt of private entities and international organizations is about 50% of the GDP and over 80% of foreign currency.
As we have already said, the second agreement that stabilized the exchange market with the IMF and covered short-term public debt, but did not restore its guarantee. own workers The Fund has doubts: Argentina's debt was sustainable, but it was classified as low probability, and the agencies warned about exposure to the deficit in our country. This means that the Political Party of the Nation was established in a political flight as an online technician, creating a symbiosis, with the Argentine authorities and the Funds: both the need to work for the plans.
Although bad news is effective, MFI bailouts continue to grow in the economy for many years: the dirty delays caused by domestic demand and tax adjustment processes are breaking down. Long-term and lightweight. Similarly, there is no clear restructuring of the debenture payments made by private creditors to the outflow of creditors.
As opposed to the European convergence objective or the European Union, our economy has flexible flexibility to accelerate the process (better or worse). The dangerous fall in the exchange rate increases the debt ratio (non-convertible currency), but the acceleration of inflation does not gain external competition (it improves the real exchange rate), recovery and recovery of external deficits faster (through export and import representation) they arrive
Now, can the Argentine economy make the way? Or a new exit from capital would eventually lead to a crisis? The FIB established for the purpose of guaranteeing the payment of public figures up to 2020 has stabilized the variable FIB, a tax setting, a currency contraction policy and the Intervention Center (ICI). In fact, at the end of August sales sales after price growthIt shows signs of inflation growth (it should be shut down below 3% per month).
However, as general conditions of hyper-liquidity disappeared, re-opening external financing is not the creation of amortization capacity. This means that the extra-economic surplus needs to be recovered, and public finances comprise surpluses for the purchase of currency in the private sector, to counter foreign currency currencies.
The problem of the stabilized stabilization plan is that there are two flaws in the bandwagon. The first is that In the lower historical limit, the average historical value implies a true exchange rate, which is not enough for today's context. In addition, considering the tax pressure on the trader sector, it is important to take into account the need to increase the export duties required to achieve the main fiscal balance, creating a foreign currency of the private sector.
Secondly, 30% of the amplitude bandwidth exaggerated is our great currency mistrust. In the absence of the BCRA tools to influence the CNI exchange market, they can cause sudden jumps in the dollar. This will be important in 2019 through a dichotomous electoral process on the future of economic policy.
In summary, in the best cases, the first revision of the agreement will be with the NMF of many of the coming. And, unlike the deceptions of the same default or euro-area bailouts, the problem of exchange will be key to defining the success or failure of the plan.
* Director of Ecolatina