What had happened had to happen. After the year in Argentina this year devaluation 50% weight, The price of the dollar is doubling, one caused by inflation and virtual Mortgage credit disappearance, real estate price bubble it was dissolved.
For one year, the average real values sold and the homes sold are sold They dropped 10.2% in dollars. The data comes Buenos Aires City Notaries AssociationCalculates each month, taking into account the average value of the actions signed in a given period dollars according to these operations. Last November, the latest available data was this value $ 122,493 for each operation. It was in November 2017 $ 137,015.
It should be noted that the secretary is an image that is open the closest reality. As it is known throughout the world, the writings reflect roughly 80% of the actual value of this operation. But if 20% of this operation is roughly constant, the statistical series is equally valid.
In any case, the information is important. Boom of UVA credit mortgage He financed a large part of real estate operations until June of last year, when the exchange rate stopped the market. It is a significant data, when it is purchased with a mortgage loan, it is more difficult to "draw" the amount of the deed, because there is a mortgage behind that document.
Exceptions to the case, there is another point that stands out. Notarial numbers, which are likely to be closer to the market, show the fall in real estate, sites that show classified ads. They are still rising in real estate securities.
This would explain a basic way: owners who put their goods on sale it is difficult to cut the sales value. And it must be said that a few real estate agents are not tempted by the price of the market value and, therefore, to increase the customer base. Property without months of selling goods.
Also, the adverse effects, the price range of the offers generated on the web is included in the price that the owner wants to sell, and this sale will not end up.
It is also true that the Argentine real estate market Very rigidFor several reasons: sellers do not run away from debt, which is why they are rarely able to get rid of their property and accept lower prices than they would think for a while.
It is evident that the real estate value does not appear on the stock exchange, such as a stock of a bank, There is no way to find out about what happens in the market. But there is an objective event: in November there were hardly any endings 3,689 writings45% less compared to November 2017. There is more increase 75,000 homes. Bid exceeds demand. In the stock market, the scenario can only be reduced to an action that is confrontational.
The market data is given by the economist Juan José Cruces, The future Rector of Di Tella University, who has been warned in more than a year prices were exaggerated by a little dollars. "My vision is always the same. It was an economy shock It is important that this should be reflected in all market prices. I think the fall will not be over yet, and I would not refuse to see it yet Cut 10 or 15 points more. Do not forget that Construction costs small, it is used more than the new department can use for lesser sales, and it must necessarily reduce all quotes because it is sold by the builder.
The summary of the crosses is: "The new CABA subway box in 2004, 2006, 2016 and 2017 It was equivalent to covering the price of 1,200 on the Sunday magazine ClarínIt's almost now 2,000 Sunday Clarinettes. The collective pathology for dollar pricing asks sellers Impossible prices for demand payment. The external shock that we had in 2018 means that the prices of non-exportable goods and the imported components have fallen. It is the champion of assets classified in the real estate category. It does not include a traditional name: Property, that is, it can not be exported. "
Alejandro Bennazarowner of the owner Argentina Chamber of Real Estate, the new scenario admits: "The normal observation is low, it is logical that the dollar is what the seller needs and what the buyer is offering.
-Doero everything must be deleted again? Ask Clarin.
-You do not know what happens if the dollar and inflation stagnate, maybe it reacts to the market, something from harvest dollars. And we will not dismiss the accusation of reconsideration, more in the election season. There is an important point. Now you can take a mortgage loan to buy it well. This shuts down at a lower price, finally endangering the work of the final consumer and the builder does not charge a financial quote. You can buy a cheaper 20% off a ready-to-use section. "
Consultant Real Estate Report, José Rozados A few days ago he said on his twitter account: "In these prices, it is difficult to sell properties. I see very irrational quotes, although one's own resources, if there is any sense, pay tribute. Honestly, there will be no sales or sales. Nobody has to sell. But it is something that offers something in the market that does not want to get into the market "
Santiago Levrio, The real estate developer at Metropolitan Home, has stressed Prices must match at least one construction cost declineIt fell by 30% year-on-year. "I do not think they will return to a $ 2017 salary, so real estate price adjustments need to be made. There is no other. In a short period of time, the $ 100,000 department used will cost $ 80,000."
In the real estate sector, they acknowledge that it is necessary to refuse to make a short sale difficult. "It is not argued that the execution values decrease by 10% and the publication values increase by 10% per year. Real estate can not afford the average price per neighborhood "," Searching for an important property called the Northern Corridor ", which requires anonymity.
It's a little bit that drives those who use the look of new units. The 2018 building permits were registered in the registry, as requested by the developers who wish to predict the new urban code. These are, as mentioned, thanks to lower building costs. And perhaps they will increase bubble deflation.