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Classification of investments in 2018: the best and worst year forgotten



In Merval, the collapse of nearly 50% in dollars was accumulated, and the only one 0.7% growth in weights (About 50% annual inflation). Serious economic turbulence (over-102% of exchange rates), with nearly all inventions of macro-makers, coincided almost entirely with the emergence of a new market storm. In the U.S. (as a result of the capital of emerging countries), and the constant risk that the war in the US and China trade (now also adds to the risk of a slowdown in the global economy).

"This year's surprise was the drop in the price of all the sales markets since the beginning of February, but above all, it was very vulnerable in countries such as Argentina and, to a lesser extent, Turkey, speaking the accused currency in their currency," explained Gustavo Neffa, Partner and Market Research Director.

Without neglecting the level of sector level and the fundamentals of the companies, Some stocks lost more than 115% in dollars and almost 65% pesos.

It was the only exception Petrobras Brazil, that was nominally risen More than 160% Obtaining sales of more than 110% of Dols, backed by the Bolsonaro effect.

This time nor the rate of pesos, The great winner of the first two years of Macri's president, we can face the currency crisis (The two presidents of the BCRA did only three months), and nor the dollar, they acted as shelter.

"The dream of continuity of compression dissipation has been forgotten, the country's risk has doubled and more than 20% of the dollar's share of losses was a huge headache for investors." Diego Martínez Burzaco kept MB Inversiones strategist. Only the short-term Letes was the active protection, the preservation of the dollar's capital and the acceptable income to the new (and difficult) situations in our country.

Argentine debt debt payments have been closed in Argentina, which had to come up with the IMF when the level of vulnerability of the beginning of the 2020 fiscal year is verified, until the NDF is exhausted.

"The bond could not find a price balance. We saw a risk of almost 800 countries, we started recovering and we broke 600 points, but unfortunately 800 points were passed", Christian Buteler, has described financial analysts.

In recent months, the market seems to have found "a certain balance", but everything "is very weak and the exchange crisis can not be over," Buteler warned. For Neffa, the reduced monetary application applied to the market for impairment, but it did not solve the problems of funds and increase depression.

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Best of 2018: Petrobras Brazil

With the least amount of paper terminated by nominal terms, the 2018 route Petrobras Brazil (+ 161% peso)The victory of the right candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, would create a better business environment in the surrounding country, while the company could achieve better results.

In the podium, Spanish shares RepsolAlthough they continue to trade in the country they left in YPF, they have little liquidity with the general panel, that is, the most winners are statistically complete. Thirdly, the mentioned thing appears: the wholesale exchange rate, whose value doubled a year $ 18.67 $ 37.70. Something similar happened euro: At the end of December 2017 at $ 23.58, 92.2% rose to $ 45.32.

Top ten, several Dollars for sovereign bonds (pesos auxiliares), that is, move higher Impact of American currency jump Against the domestic currency (even if they were measured in dollars in the portfolio, all the securities have fallen this year).

The worst year: PBI coupons

The most important annual losses PBI coupons in weight (-81.4%), according to the deterioration of the forecasts of Argentine growth. We started forecasting GDP growth in the year, and will remain completely negative in 2019. the country grows more than 3.2%, the necessary level to pay for this necessary tool.

Next, we registered one of the actions of the general panel, which is more than 64%. For example, footwear manufacturer Grimoldi The average and high population consumption dropped. A Longvie It was similar: with the decline in purchasing power, the kitchen stove was recently refurbished, the hot water was refurbished, among other things, and part of the demand became cheaper.

Meanwhile, Endesa Costanera (one of the companies with the largest electric power company in the field of electricity) has been one of the most efficient companies in the sector, according to investors, explained Rafael Di Giorno, Director of Proficio Investment.

AGROMETALThe machinery manufacturer was one of the most difficult of the year. The debt sharpened its plant, but its speed increased, almost all of the machinery purchased by the agricultural sector, as well as being frozen, almost frozen.

This is a highlighted business in this negative score Cablevision (The Panel is a member of the Panel), because the process of unifying the Telecom is not over, it has not been resolved for a long time, and many investors have done it nervously.

On the other hand, the other Merval index company, the "red list", is a leading Russian stock market Supervielle Taldea. It had a great fall, resulting in a great loss of the chatroulette exchange rate. He questioned the risk control systems in the market. War changes were made to compare the bad event that left the company's bosom, Di Giorn explained.


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