Monday , April 19 2021

Dollars to the mattress, weights in banks and the end of the recession? – 11/25/2018



The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) envisages a slowdown in the world economies over the past two years.

Commercial war United States and China (G20 G20 meetings in Buenos Aires), the consequences of leaving the United Kingdom of the European Union and the potential increase in the interest rate of US bonds. They want to complicate the global economic landscape.

They will be involved in the world developed in a continuous world, and in this context they will play Argentina election year supplementary

As part of this cocktail is the component of the Argentine economic adjustment process dollar stamp The international market created between June and September has cut its country financing.

In the last seven weeks and after a special grant of the Fund (USD 57,100 million and speed), the government stabilized the exchange market.

This result is among the two economic results: the wholesale price of $ 36.63, a 0.1% increase in the month and a large increase in the deposits of individual banks.

The tranquility of the exchange rate, though, is based on some forecasts, based on research Orlando FerreresFor example, in November, inflation could be closer to 2.5%, as much as 3% of the Government estimates.

A more relaxed dollar would help moderate price rises after boosting inflation and overcoming purchasing power.

As usual in Argentina, the quiet one also transferred some dollars accumulated during uncertainty in the financial system, in weight training.

Analysis of the evolution of deposits and private loans Ricardo Arriazu In fixed terms, 282% grew in October and September.

Cash deposits also grew, in this case, savings account placements.

Fast reading indicates that those who make the most weight can put more than in dollars in order to save them in pre-emptive accounts.

But the important thing is whether it's a dollar or not, the deposits grow, the loans, on the other side of the bench, have dropped dramatically.

PWeights in loans in pesos fell 21.344 million dollars Between September and October and the first week of November.

In credit dollars (remember that banks should only agree with companies or export activities) In September, US $ 600 million fell and it fell steadily In October and early November, around US $ 300 million.

In the Bank accounts, it is the majority of the Banks in the Central Bank that they capture in dollars, and, on the other hand, the deposits of the private sector largely, Liquidity Lyrics (Leliq) The Central Bank will pay around 61.7% per year.

Searching for the result Guido Sandleris, President of the Central Bank, to advance the expected growth of zero money, in an attempt to keep the dollar and inflation calm.

A picture of this reality shows that a large part of Argentina's dollars still exists in a mattress, one has gone to the weights and instead of those deposits in banks They are not loans. It is expected that the crisis will not be delayed without growth. How long will the activity brake be with the hand??


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