After marking the devaluation of the balance of 2018, inflation of 48% and the recession almost all the activities are extended. how will the start of the economy begin? At the beginning of the new year. The budget official budget announces a fall of 0.5% in 2019.
Specialists, in that sense, have predictions First quarter "difficult" and it was "complicated" because, in general, the inter-annual variations in activity continue to decline because they reflect more conditions in what happened in 2018. However, the recovery in the second quarter would be very slow to improve with activities and leasing sectors. The main question will be what happens with the exchange rate stability, interest rates and a country risk, and it involves serious financial stress at current levels.
"It's one of the 2019 economic priorities The Central Bank achieves lowering the rate without escaping interest without money, "he says. Federico Furiase, adviser economist Eco Go. "Likewise, it is necessary to recover the balance against inflation. Today, there is something that complicates the current in a context where political uncertainty conflicts with the country's danger," he says.
Country risk, a variable that follows the activity of Argentine foreign bonds, "The Central Bank leaves margin for lowering the interest rate, Strengthening credit becomes too difficult, and at the same time, companies must co-finance, "he argues. In summary, analysts," in a short-term, real-estate leasing, credit standing, and in this context, gradually recover companies that could be unemployed. "
to Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, economist EcolatinaThe first question is how the continued exchange rate continues. "With a country risk of more than 800 points, it is clear that Argentina does not have the possibility of financing, and while the country is in line with the FMI conditions, the 2019 discounts will be available and, by 2020, it should go towards debt to 2020," he says. "What uncertainty about financial uncertainty is," he says.
On the other hand, "we were in favor of the first semester, with the recovery of some sectors, with the income we wanted to continue growing, April opening paritarias, unions adjusted for wage adjustments and adapted to pension mobility ".
Agricultural harvesting is one of the plus points in the coming economy, "especially corn and soybeans, he had a strong recovery after drought, "says Sigal Gravina." On the other hand, other trading sectors react with the highest exchange rate, such as agriculture, mining, oil and gas, among others. Perhaps some industries, like the automotive industry, have exported more. "
According to this Ramiro Castiñeira, from econometric2019 begins "ironing", "touches the crisis". Except for tourism, that is, the only candidate for recovery, the first quarter of the year "remains difficult". After the second quarter, with agricultural harvests, activity can be recovered, forecast.
Fausto Spotorno, economist of analysis Ferreres & Asociados, believes that the first quarter of 2019 is complex. "Except for tourism, there are no variables that push too much in the economy, but after the second quarter, data could be positive, by agriculture, faster growth and some industrial sectors," he says.
This year, with an increase of 48% in inflation, it agrees that the agreement of the economists will decrease the following year. In fact, according to the expectations of the Central Bank analysts, the price index (CPI) 27.5% increase In 2019
Consumption, another variable in economic activity, should wait a few months. "It will be one partial recovery to improve income, "warns Sigal Gravina. But do not forget that the power purchase in 2018 lost about 11 percent against inflation, the analyst reminded Clarin.
In order to buy durable goods, on the other hand, it will continue along a path slower than mass consumptionBecause of lack of credit, experts say. Above all, sales in supermarkets, warehouses and self-service (mass consumption) have to wait a bit to recover.
Juan Manuel Primbas, analysts at Kantar Worldpanel's specialist consultancy in the first half of 2019, consumption would have a 4% decrease. In the second half, it would be a 2% increase.
Concerning the international context of the local economy, "It does not benefit next year", the recently announced Ecolatina report: "The international financial condition will be somewhat more restrictive and we do not expect the rise in commodity prices. However, the positive growth opportunities of our major trading partners are positive, especially in Brazil," said the report.