Thursday , October 6 2022

Fixed term, bonds, cards and loans: what will the central bank cause the fees?



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The fall in interest rates by the Central Bank over the last three months is 60% The performance of fixed terms and other tools will also be reduced, although the subsidy will have to maintain a permanent balance so that a new migration money migration is not generated.

By specialists consulted TN.com.ar, the decline in rates tends to "normalize" the rest of the nominal variables of the economy. This would mean that the sponsor and the consumer would reduce the cost of borrowing money in credit cards and personal loans, once again it will reduce the performance of fixed-term depositsIn October and November they exceeded 50%.

Interest rates were influenced by economic activity. At the end of August, since the end of the last powerful exchange rate had been destroyed, the Central Bank headed by Luis Caputo decided to raise the rate of 15 points to get a massive US currency fleet trying to keep the minimum level. From 60% to December. The new leadership of the central entity moved forward to drill on the floor.

On the first day of Leliq, after the announcement of the 60% reduction in the minimum monetary policy, the short-term financial instrument (7 days), that is, only one currency negotiation between banks and banks The average yield was 59,102%. Besides, the dollar began to stabilize steadily and rose almost 70 cents as of 5.

The decision of the Central Bank decision to validate the lower rate of 60% is also related to external factors. "We can not be distinguished from the international context, the price of a petroleum bullet was reduced, the US expectations of inflation slowed down and the Federal Reserve continued to increase. There is less local pressure, and therefore, largely, the Central Bank decided to eliminate the Leliq tariff floor, "said Florencia Galvan.

Of course, the return rate of interest rates to return to standardized levels is, in principle, a corner risk, and it is not necessary to do it precisely because it can reverse the exchange rate pressure. .

"The monetary authority must move a delicate balance to reduce the rate of elimination of the activity level It maintains the demand for weight, creating an exchange rate that breaks the cuts"explains Martin Vauthier, economic advisor, EcoGo.

The Central Bank manages to harmoniously continue the path to lower rates, without returning the weight pressure, to adapt nominal variables such as interest rates. Nearly expected inflation, at 30% for the next twelve months.

In this sense, an economist, Mariano Otálora, believes that "a fixed period was higher than 50% with a higher benchmark and now it is difficult to find 50%, the bank offers more than 42, 43 or 44 years, and with it , there will also be a decline in the general economic rates, credit cards, downloads (checking checking accounts) and financing personal loans".

The label will also play its game: it is a month that increases the demand for dollars in December, especially as a second part of the Christmas bonus investment. "We would not expect to reduce dramatically in the short term, but it could be created Finally, instead of the fixed term, choose a foreign currency. It is always recommended to diversify when invested, in the selected instruments and in the market and divisions sector, "said Galván.

Vauthier proposes an alternative to evaluate whether or not to have weight or dollars: check the risk of the country. "The 50% annual rate is actually a 4.2% monthly rate, so the movement above US $ over this percentage settles a refund." So, over variable rate changes, what are the most important expectations? In terms of devaluation, it is very important to monitor the country's risk dynamics, "he said.

In the end, Otalora recommends that the percentage of the portfolio should be in each of the currencies to avoid unnecessary risks. "The comfort of the dollar and weight is relative, because high rates do not necessarily mean weighing, that the dollar below shows that it can increase by 5% and you can eat all the profitability. I have chosen to make money at $ 70 and a bit in weight and in the short term ".

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