Monday , October 25 2021

Imports have collapsed for more than 9 years and have surplus trade


According to INDEC, foreign purchases fell by 29% in November. Exports grew and the balance was positive

It's a manual: when the dollar is suddenly jumping, imports are the first thing that adjusts, and sales in the world need more time to react.

This is happening with Argentine foreign trade Already in the statistics, it reflects the effect of a green card doubling one year ago.

According to INDEC, this Wednesday, Foreign purchases registered a year-on-year drop of 29.2% in November.

In total, imports of $ 4,365 million, a year earlier, amounted to almost US $ 6,2 million.

To find a collapse, we must return to September 2009that is, more. At that time, the international crisis and historical drought of the agricultural sector (also due to lower imports), with the first customs barriers added, the dynamism was lower.

In fact, prices of imported products in November rose almost 8% and decreased by 34.5%. That is, in volumes, The forecast is even harder and shows how the dollar sales and the poor performance of the consumer and industry are affected.

In the second case, those with the greatest decline are vehicles: in November, foreign purchases (especially Brazil) fell by 52%. For this reason, due to the strong frameworks of local brands, due to the patent that continues for a month, the prices of 0 km and the high interest rates have been significantly more expensive.

In parallel, goods also had a brake, 46% contraction, machinery parts and accessories, as well as spare parts for mobile phones, which were reduced by 40%.

Consumer goods registered a year-on-year drop of 35%. These numbers are disturbing, as they are solely due to the weakness of retail demand, but it is a reflection of the private behavior of private investment and public works, the Government moves to reduce its plan. public expense

Sales to the world, positive

Exports went up in positive territory with a 14.5% increase, the second highest variation rate for the year (March increased, with 18.4% growth).

In fact, more than 1 percent showed higher prices. Compared to the statistical effect: November compared to the same month of 2017, the economists' consensus has led to an increase in the exchange rate reversals, and sales have declined further.

In fact, in the inter-monthly rate, the amount of exports was 4% higher than in January to November. That is, despite a positive variation, the boom is still far away.

However, Ecolatina consultants marked it It was "the all the export items show the first month of growth, leaving the negative impact of drought Impact of primary product and shipments of agricultural products ".

Difficulty decreases

As a result of the two variables, November gave the third surplus of the year, $ 979 million, which was a deficit of almost $ 1,500 million last year.

The positive balance sheet is 2018, but it's almost 4 years and a half to find a larger figure.

According to Ecolata, in December, expected surplus is expected, as a result of the new evolution of exports and the decline in imports.

So things, The $ 5 billion deficit in 2018 would have to shut down, making it $ 8,300 million last year.

Before 2019, consumer analysts expect a decline in imports, as the GDP will not react. This is added The new development of exports, thanks to the recovery of agriculture, will increase Brazil's dynamism and increase hydrocarbon production, "It will bring a surplus of about $ 6 billion.", they say.

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