According to analysts, inflation it started with a path upward trend From August onwards, although it will be in the valleys, it will continue to rise and will be between 3.3% and 4.1% per month in the next six months, despite changes dlar. This trend was highlighted in the Market Expectations Survey (REM), a month-on-month survey Central Bank (BCRA).
He calculated the averages of the respondents in their predictions inflation upwards, estimating that 2020 will close with inflation between 36.4% and 36.7%. For his part, BCRA means a new one inflation overall, between 17m4 and 17.1 points than 53.8% in 2019.
The problem is that the data is estimated to be 1.3 or 0.9 points higher than a month ago. Moreover, for the first time since the October pandemic began, respondents failed in their calculations, they hoped inflation which is generally 3.2% and 3.8% Indec.
From this, the forecasts inflation By 2021 they had risen from 48.9% to 50% and adjusted their estimates to increase.
They calculate inflation November was between 3.5% and 3.6% and they maintain a calculation of 4% for December and 4.1% in January and a significant increase for the February and March forecasts.
Thus, analysts believe inflation this will be saved in 2020, due to rate freezes and price agreements, which began to be seen in the last months of the year and will continue in the first four months of 2021, according to official announcements that announced this. end of freezing in March.
The economy, showing a recovery, will lead to a return to distribution supply strong wage adjustments in recent years. Participants REM the economy is estimated to be between 10.9% and 11% this year.
However, they calculate that deceleration In the reconstitution of activity, it grew by only 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and will remain mediocre in the first quarter of 2021, as it is less than a point of improvement.
The activity will allow for growth Gross domestic product In 2021 (GDP) it will lose strength by 20.2% in 2022, reaching 2.5%.
As for dlar, according to the projection, will close at $ 83 per year and will reach $ 126.45 at the end of 2021, a nominal devaluation of the peso 38.6% this year and 52.3% next.