Wednesday , July 28 2021

Lebac bomb from Leliq: Dynamite Central Banks?



In a continuous middle country, essential function Central Banks Payment and credit offer, depending on the real economy expansion, and at the same time, the volume of international reserves Payment of local currency to indicate payment and credit types Contrary to the unwillingness of the global financial market. Currency and credits in the internal market and stock options reserves I will moderate the external flow.

From the beginning of the management The national government went backwards, Signed up Trade and financial open world of voltage, releasing the movement of currency and dominance revenues guaranteeing a positive rate of interest by the governing body through the instruments provided by the exchange rate evolution. High interest rate, monetary free movement and cash income in dollars. If there is an explosive cocktail, especially in the world great protectionMultilateralism Crisis and Reducing International Liquidity.

Sturzenegger, the first president of the BCRA, The issuance of the Central Bank letters (LEBAC) was opening up in the open market At the levels that exceed the monetary base. When the outbreak began, Caputo extracted the first $ 15,000 million IMF to facilitate the abolition of the majority of the LEBAC granted according to the previous. Now, Sandleris has achieved a second deviation from the multilateral agencies. $ 5,631 million They were outside the financial system to complete the payment of LEBAC. The rest of the letters were compulsorily delivered to banks and liquidity letters or became LELIQ.

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Government He turns off the power tool pumps He speculated with his monetary policy, without measuring the cost $ U $ S $ 17.7 million with FIF exchange painful adjustment Also, the loss of planned international reserves US $ 10,000 million.

This tour is essential, first of all, of completing the Bank's Central Policy that promotes financial recovery and capital flow and, on the other, If the mobile stability between the bands is permanent.

It was said in the previous columnsDespite a change in the period, the National Budget Adjustment, to vote for the IMF vote, to extend the original agreement and perform a specific "pax" exchange. could not restructure private foreign currency offerings. The evaluation of international reserves' behavior, said the Sandleris government organization was $ 49,568 million and On November 16, it was $ 52,198 million. The increase was 2,630 million dollars. But if the second NDF money of $ 5,631 million is rejected, 38-day business reserves were $ 3.001 billion. It's a waste capital.

The behavior of X-ray international reserves, see what happens with weights, the situation described in the following table:

The analysis of the policies established by the new BCRA authorities is consistent Double Zero Plan, the base fell by 6.7% and private sector loans fell by -2.2%. Reducing the continued currency and reduced credit policy.

Return, The LEBAC replaced the Liquid Label (LELIQ) increased by 110.9%, $ 355,460 million whopping a month and a half, giving rise to 73% and final cuts below 10 points below that. Changes in the private sector assets due to liquidity rates, due to high rates, are fixed through fixed-term deposits through growth in the financial system of 190,758 million dollars, 24.7% in months and a half

The wider aggregate currency (M3) growth is 5%, although it is a reduction in monetary policy. All weights are in banks, letters and deposit certificates.

Sandleris contracts the monetary base and private credit, but at the same time It spreads speculative speculative tools, the effects of this policy on the banking system. It does not sell the "loose" market on the international reserves, but the "banks" of the "banks" give them "paperwork". In addition, it is also a great deal to catch deposits. They are packed with finance deposits financed by financial institutions, and owners have a monthly renewal rate, how much is the dollar price and what is offered with the interest rate.

There is no longer a "monthly surcharge" market that is suspended in the suspension of the LEBAC deadlines, but there is a surge of interest rate / deceleration rate. That's the first bank execution can be very difficult.

The Central Bank disarmed the "LEBAC bomb" but renewed its "LELIQ bomb". The difference is that the latter is in every bank.


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