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Low central rates and more dollars to maintain the exchange rate – 01/31/2013



He decided to increase the current monetary policy of the Central Bank 75 million dollars one day at the top of the foreign divisions that could not be bought when the wholesale price is in the market Underground area of ​​intervention intervention. This box will be applied in February and may not be modified in March.

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In January, the txapela was established 50 million. At the same time, the ad is seen accelerating the rate of interest rate of the monetary interest, which was solved yesterday 53.68%. The rate was made at 59.4% at the end of the year, and the money program that reached 74% began in October.

However, the dollar exceeds the exchange rate ceiling – $ 49.03 and $ 49.97 in February – the BCRA may be $ 150 million a day.

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The original purchase and sale agreement, agreed with the IMF, amounted to $ 150 million per day, but the target of the monetary base was not compromised, purchases for January were only 50 million dollars per day for 50 million dollars.

It will also have cash purchases one month in February. At the beginning of February, the equivalent of 3% of the monetary base envisaged is 1,372 billion pesos. When the band floor goes to this month $ 37.88 and $ 38.61It can buy the power stations 1,100 million dollars. In January, the purchase of foreign currency was $ 560 million.

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With the decision announced yesterday, Central gives a clear signal, although not a priority, to receive a real exchange rate, since the debate does not grow again to address the problem "Exchange Delay".

The debate about the alleged delays in the real downturn of the exchange rate, even if that was the case In 2018 weighing underwent 50% devaluation– The strength of the dollar rose slightly in January compared to about 2.5% of inflation forecast.

The slope slope established by the exchange rate has fallen by 2% in the first quarter of 2019. An average 2.5% per month quarterly expectation is expected, the easy dollar will be left behind. inflation That, at least, until the pre-election campaign temperature. Each one outstrips the result of the planned election, as a result of greater foreign currency demand.

The business sector also alleges complaints in two bundles: depending on the level of interest rates, in addition to the dollar price (see extra).

Concrete is the biggest outlay of profits in a global and favorable local context. Overall, the Federal Reserve of the United States did not raise interest rates (the probability throughout 2019) with the peace of the new markets. In the local level, the higher demand for weight allows the BCRA to accelerate the fall in interest rates paid by the liquidity lender.

In its press releases, the Central Bank explained that "if the exchange rate is not below the intervention area, the monetary base will be purchased in dollars, with bids worth $ 75 million a day, the amount of accumulated monthly installments of these offers can not exceed the target 3% of the value, from February 1, which is 1,372 million dollars. "

The Central Zone, however, recalled that "the central bank's main objective is to reduce inflation that continues to be very high. The strict control of money-aggregated instruments will reach this goal, respectively.

He confirmed that he had overcome the Monetary Base targets. The average monthly payments for the month of the month were $ 1,345 million in January, for which $ 12,141 million and a 0.6% higher than the December average.


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