A year ago, Guillermo Calvo He went to Argentina. The Washington-based economist, Argentina, underlined his colleague, Carmen Reinhardt (expert in economic crisis stories) It was essential for the Government to go to the NDF, before having the end-user donor. At that time, nobody was paying attention.
Now, Calvo has visited the country invited to participate in the CIEF (International Economy and Finance Conference) and has made new warnings. The central bank concentrated mainly on the hard-earned program set forth: "In reality, a country does not use control of aggregate control to fight inflation, for example, because money creation factors are different." And he immediately stated "Only certainty is that this type of policy will only be extended to recession".
In recent days, the negotiation negotiation scheme negotiated with the IMF for financial variables has been criticized. In summary, the Central Controls strictly controlling the spread of money, and the organization can not define the definition of an intervention area that does not buy or sell the currency.
The program launched at the beginning of October reached its initial goal: to stabilize the dollar, although it paid a high interest rate. But in August, after a wealth of more than $ 28 in excess of $ 40, it was essential to control the exchange rate at all costs to avoid inflation (6 points in September, 5%).
The UIA also underlined the impact that this policy has on the production device. This week the head of the manufacturing organization was particularly hard, Miguel Acevedo. "We lost 40,000 jobs a year, we already had a high rate of control and monetary policy and we had bad results." But he warned "the truth is that the dollar is more stable, but the race is not over, it controls very high rates."
Banks led banks to carry out monetary policies LELI's performance exceeded 74% and fell to 59%. But in recent days, fatigue was noticeable. It is not so easy to lower these levels rates due to the rise in the exchange rate. On Friday, he touched thirty million dollars to the public.
Interest rates are maintained at high levels, but in dollars. That is reflected Increasing the country's risk, that is to say, Mauricio Macri's management record. On Friday, it exceeded 760 points and the title has exceeded Bonar 2024, more than 12% in annual dollars. The uncertainty about the bad weather in the international markets and the elections in October negatively impact the perception of investors.
The two phenomena, the Leliq rate at the 60% edge and the highest country risk, are not good for the Argentine economy. Both combined factors will have a much heavier economic reorganization.
In general, economists agree with the government that it is very close or that the activity falls to the floor. However, there are differences of opinion about the claim. Due to the forecasts made by the Ministry of Finance, a "V" bounce is now left. According to Minister Nicolás Dujovne, in the fourth quarter of 2018, the economy should have an 8.5% increase per year. Today, the goal seems impossible.
Eduardo Levy YeyatiIn collaboration with the economist and the Government of Tella University, he questioned the doubts about the recovery of the activity of social networks: "Our typographic economy needs an intermediate letter between L and U." Thus, while in reality, while remaining on the side of the economy, it is poured out during the second half of the year when iron is covered and recovered, but very small.
The further reorganization that is left behind is essential for the Macri election. In October of this year, to recover the economic economy, it is one thing after the 2018 crisis. And another thing is a heat recovery, almost impossible in the pocket.
According to a November survey, the president rebounded a bit positive, perhaps the exchange rate stabilization product. And it is believed that the successful Buenos Aires G20 institution has also increased.
But for now Cristina Kirchner proposes "head to head". And those doubts that govern the Argentine government will be an important factor during 2019. The portfolio (which is quite remote from October in October) will increase the sharpness and the bombs will have a great recovery. If the pre-existing state elections are "white or black", there will be few investors who will not be defined until recently.
The government's hope is for a soybean farm, the economy would be worth another $ 9 billion compared to this year's drought. In addition, he has opted to improve real income, in a slightly more controlled context of inflation. However, these benefits factors will be counteracted by the high degree of uncertainty that contracted investments in low-level institutions and would put high pressure on the exchange rate.
The government knows why, and that's why he chooses: The Treasury's commitment is strong enough to take part in the foreign market next May or June in exchange for the exchange rate of the dollar. Currencies reaching 30% (it is a margin allowed in the agreement with the fund) would be suicide in the middle of the electoral process.