Wednesday , January 26 2022

Markets, country fallen and the risk of dollar excitement


So far in 2019, country risks have fallen to 100 points, US stocks have risen to 17% and the bonds have risen to 10%. All this, keeping the exchange rate and the tranquility of the central bank, slow down the interest rate slowly. A completely different scenario that lived last year at the end of last year. Analysts acknowledge that international conditions are respectful to the country, but the question arises: is it a financial "veranito" or scenario?

The external front provided so many bad news to the national government in 2018, Now he offered some reliefs, I needed most at the time. In the last weeks of December, there was a countrywide danger of about 840 points, the highest level in Macri, boosted by the recession's economy and the political future after the elections.

In the first days of the year, the financial climate was very different. Since January 2, when the stock market began in Buenos Aires, the indicators were green: shares from that day A global rise of 11.8% has been accumulatedArgentine bonds were once again demanded in the market, with an increase of 1.4% and 10.3%, and the paperwork of the national companies listed in New York began to grow almost enduring.

In this context, on Wednesday, the country's dangers returned to November and 700 points were drilled, but it was in 711. This indicator is the difference between the cost to pay the debt issue. what to pay for the United States According to experts, Country risk must be much lower to standardize the financial situation.

Ailín do Pazo Glave, a financial analyst, has two main reasons to understand a new situation. "The United States interest rate has dropped from 3.2% to 2.67%, as the US expects growth and inflation to decrease. Beneficial investments that generate new markets, Including Argentina, "he said in an interview

The other problem is the decision made by investors when the birthday began. "At the end of last year, many investment funds were" surplus "(highly-acquired) assets in Argentina, which led to the creation and removal of negative flows," he said. In the year, the funds closed the accounting, marked loss and overexposed. Thus, a new flow began. "

Meanwhile, Nery Persichini, the investment manager at GMA Capital, Brazil, was another factor that came up in Brazil. "To understand improvement, we need to think about the world For the last two or three weeks, he was friendly. Not only the United States rate, but also the positive impact of Jair Bolsonar's hypothesis on the market and its advertising measures. "Among other things, the Brazilian president said he wants to make a pension system reform, moving from one system to an individual capitalization.

In this sense, Juan Manuel Carnevale, a financial market expert, said "investors are waiting for Brazil to make major structural changes and In Argentina, these changes must be copied and the investors predict it. "In other words:" It's a time bomb ": If you do not lose weight, you will lose it for cholesterol, so that's what happens in Brazil."

This accumulation element accepts aside from the border that the Central Bank does not have any problems keeping the dollar. "Argentina has not changed with activity and inflation, and even more It promotes news on BCRA's monetary policy and the exchange of stability, "said Persikini.

The tranquility of the exchange rate was once again reflected in the currency of the United States for the second time after the intervention of the money authority during the week. This Thursday, when the exchange activity begins again, the wholesale price will be $ 37.37, Just two centimeters on the floor of the flotation band.

If he wants to punch this line, as he did on Monday, The BCRA will have the right to intervene technically. To do this, you can make purchases of 50 million dollars per day for the market or to activate lower interest rates with stronger Leliq, to ​​recover the green price and to continue to fall.

The Government links a new financial news week in this week to the Treasury bills. On Wednesday, the Ministry of the Treasury loaned nearly $ 1,000 million in loans in one of these portfolios The waiting period was over. It marks a climate with greater investor confidence, than to question the Argentine assets, but to go to cash dollars.

The most important question is how to determine the sustainability of financial changes in the next few weeks. Apart from external events, Do Pazo Glav argued that "if the money saved on the loan was destroyed in 2018, and for that reason we had exchange rates, we would have a steady exchange rate." And he said: "The doubts in the market are facing 2020 and they continue, especially the election and financial program. "

At this time, Carnevale is optimistic and sees "all good news". For this reason, he said: "I think that this scenario can be maintained and, in this context, activate the credits again, I do not know. The government has made the strength and desire to reform According to Brazil. "

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