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Recovery of activity in the second quarter – – Diario de Mendoza, Argentina

After marking the devaluation of the balance of 2018, The inflation rate of 48% and the recession is extended to almost all activities, and there is a big question at the beginning of the new year of the economy. The budget official budget announces a fall of 0.5% in 2019.

Specialists, in this sense, predict a "difficult" and "complex" first quarter, as the year-on-year variations in activity continue to fall, as happened in 2018. However, the recovery in the second quarter would be very slow to improve with activities and leasing sectors. The main question will be what happens with the exchange rate stability, interest rates and a country risk, and it involves serious financial stress at current levels.

One of the priorities of the economic agenda of 2019 is to lower the interest rate of the Central Bank, without escaping from the dollar, "says Federico Furiase, economic advisor at Eco Go." Likewise, it is necessary to recover the balance against inflation. Nowadays, there is something that complicates the current in a context where political uncertainty conflicts with the country's danger, "he says.

The country's risk, the variable that follows the activity of foreign Argentine bonds, "the Central Bank leaves margin for lowering the interest rate, which is also difficult to boost credit, while at the same time financing companies must co-fund", he argues. In short, the analyst says "in a short period of time, real wages, credit stagnant and in this context, gradually recovering companies that can be unemployed."

Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, Ecolatin economist, is the first question of how the exchange rate quality continues. "With a country risk of more than 800 points, it is clear that Argentina does not have the possibility of financing, and while the country is in line with the FMI conditions, the 2019 discounts will be available and, by 2020, it should go towards debt to 2020," he says. "What uncertainty about financial uncertainty is," he says.

On the other hand, "we had the first semester in favor of recovering some sectors, with revenue that would begin with growth, in April, with a formal opening of parities, by unions adjusting wage adjustments and adapting them to pension mobility."

Agricultural harvesting is especially expensive, "especially corn and soybeans", a commitment to the economy, which was a powerful recovery after drought, "says Sigal Gravinak." On the other hand, other trading sectors react with the highest exchange rate, such as agriculture, mining, oil and gas, among others. Perhaps some industries, like the automotive industry, have exported more. "

Ramiro Castiñeira, from Econometric, starts the "ironing", "disturbing" crisis in 2019. Except for tourism, that is, the only candidate for recovery, the first quarter of the year "remains difficult". After the second quarter, with agricultural harvests, activity can be recovered, forecast.

Fausto Spotorno, economist at the Ferreres & Asociados studio, believes that the first quarter of 2019 is very difficult. "Except for tourism, there are no variables that push too much in the economy, but after the second quarter, data could be positive, by agriculture, faster growth and some industrial sectors," he says.

This year, with an increase of 48% in inflation, it agrees that the agreement of the economists will decrease the following year. In fact, according to Central Bank analysts' expectations, the price index (CPI) increased by 27.5% in 2019.

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