Wednesday , October 20 2021

Still, is the country a high risk, now the US is rising in the rate? – 12/18/2018


The President of the United States, Donald Trump, The Federal Reserve in his country for two consecutive days asked him not to have an "error" rate of interest raised, the decision he would have announced next.

Trump's argument shows no inflationary risk in the United States, China will try to make it grow less and at this time the increase in credit growth would be affected.

The Federal Reserve is a body with a long history independence The obligation to make decisions and increase the rate of interest (which will be 2.25% per year), at least not show the pressure on the U.S. Directorate General.

As the corollary, the market goes ahead and there is not one "Quality flight" Capital expectations in the US Treasury Bonds (2.83%) are expected to be expected.

The flight for "quality" emerges from the emerging markets "Vacuum cleaner" Due to the low risk of American titles.

The process comes from the beginning of the year, and Argentina knows that it was the region of Argentina Who paid more mistrust.

On the Sunday column bugle, economist Ricardo Arriazu, The result of this movement was placed on the table: "In February average price of shares In the distant countries, it dropped by 13.8%, the average country risk increased by 26.2% and the currency was lower than the average of 5.7%. In Argentina, shares fell by 44.5% The country risk increased by 77.2% and the weight was 89.7% amortized ".

Fall caused by fall drought In rural areas, cut-off financing and dollar-based seals led to recession and mistrust for investors.

In the 2018 Balance, Econviews Advice Miguel Kiguel, stressed that "the most damaged salaries fell by 10%, in real wages, especially SMEs, the industry as a whole, and mass consumption and durable goods." who is They are "in short" extended descent?

Energy sector, mining, "regional economics and services exports". And who could improve in 2019?

In addition to agricultural exports, "All those who require less credit and their request is less elastic at the rental level ". Very limited.

Argentina has reached the end of 2018 The country risk is 780 points(If you get credits to pay more than 7.8 points in the U.S.), and aside from the election of Cristina Kirchner's polls, as the main outsourced election polls, the great foreigners have handed over the Argentine bonds.

None of these two reasons would be a short-term solution, and, on the other hand, confidence in the financial affairs continues to show signs of agility.

They show the Argentine bonds Very important step Since the expiration of 2019. The results go through 11% or 12% per year, and in this case The DICA return rate is 14%. dollars.

These high returns do not fascinate investments, even if Argentina is paying special debt and in December, US $ 5,000 and US $ 6,000 millionIt's paying coupons for vouchers.

It is a peace of mind that allows credible anti-credibility weight revaluation In October, the mobile swap band system supported by the IMF was established.

There's another thing there US $ 29,000 million dollars stored in banks. Nowadays, foreign currency practices are more than weights, although in both cases the number of loans is low.

Monetary deposits can be granted to exporters that generate foreign currency in dollars to repay credit. The limitations of companies that think of imposing debt on high interest rates are insurmountable.

And without credit spread It is difficult to think about reviving economic activity: the 3.5% fall in GDP in the third quarter of the year is a reflection of this reality.

Improve it Wheat exports, corn and soybeansWhen gas is in use, as a result of the wages bill begins to recover due to inflation, it helps to consume the retirement update. the dollar continues along the path of peace The behavior of the officials expects the 2019 election to be withdrawn.

As of the economic downturn of 2018, the economic uncertainty of the election ceremony does not find reliable levels, nor in the surveys they provide Improvement of the President's image Mauricio Macri. In the short term, the Federal Reserve and the decision on the interest rate will be on the ground.

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