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Surveys, courts and mayor: Keys to unify the provincial elections – 30/01/2014

When a debate about a possible division was started, the assertion by the President of the Government, María Eugenia Vidal, was not only the chairman, Mauricio Macri, and he joined one of his joint selections, the debate opened again: what would happen now together? Has 2015 history been repeated? How does Cristina influence her? Based on these triggers, but above all, according to surveys statistics and historical backgrounds, bugle Do not duplicate the keys that have recovered.

What surveys do you say?

Until now, the scenes that combine the names of Macri, Cristina and Vidal have already excluded the hypothesis: Governors can represent the president in a national candidate. In these proposals, in general, surveys throughout the country, agent chief executive of Buenos Aires It has appeared for everyone.

The question is now what happens only in the province and with electoral census. Particularly in the first round of October, it is crucial, when it is defined in the neighborhood over the next four years, In a competition (local) a vote does not predict.

According to January surveys, an advanced newspaper is a common number in Buenos Aires. Da Circuit, a small company, usually consulted on the left, distinguishes this power. It has an important precedent: the order has been lost and the percentages of the results of the province of the 2017 province have been lost.

This time he presented a piece of work 1,158 cases, posted between 9 and 14 of this month, with a margin of +3.5%.

There are some interesting facts: They have a similar image to the province of Vidal and Cristina (37.5% positive and 46.6% negative first, and 38.1% and 49.2% in the second) Macro comes next (31.1% and 59.7%).

After asking the intention of the vote, Circuitos responds to a question that matches Macri and Vidal (as well as with the votes) and then with another reference by Cristina K (Agustín Rossi). It's about the Citizens' Unit, but almost, almost in the error margin: 32.4% and 30.7%.

Then, turning to the idea that Vidal had come to the presidency, Cristina suddenly measured. Macri, of course. And there, Two leaders from Cambiemos have been left. Governors much more (from 48.7% to 42%, from 43.8% to 42.7%).

In addition, they will answer the questions: when they share a vote, will Vidri to Mac? Will he push? Will the vow cut?

A consultant working in the Citizen Unit It includes two very interesting events. One, who does not believe that this difference against Macri appears in the polls. "The real vote in Cambiemos is Vidal. Now people are angry with Macri, but if it's coming, Vidal will finish Macro's vote, especially if Kristina is on the other side. "

Other data: "In January, Cristina province increased by 3 or 4 pointsBut this must be confirmed in February. January is a month with "bias" in the holiday season. The voter might not have left K, and that's why, when you're at home and think about Cambiemos, do not. "

Anchor, Catapult or Cut?

The question was raised in the previous point: How can the relationship between Macri and Vidal work force? You can also add: And Cristina with her governor's candidate?

The subject has a theater mediator with a couple of actors. In the first round of 2015, Macri lost the province against Daniel Scioli against 4.21 points (37.13% and 32.92%), and Vidal defeated Anatel Fernandez 4.31 (39.49% against 35, 18%) for the government. There was a very peculiar statistical castaway: Vidal and Sciol got some 3.4 million votes; and Macri and Aníbal were 3 million euros. As cardholders have invested. Many of these 400 thousand votes of the candidate of the modifications came from the Front Renovador more than Hannibal. Likewise, they suffered a similar cut: President Massa took more than 300 votes from Solá for the governor. Many have chosen Massa / Vidal variant. In this regard, The primary ones will usually serve as a computer. Will it Repeat?

Check it too

Of course Neither Vidal nor Macri are in 2015 and Cristina joined. This also shows a theater: combined with the Scioli of the Province in 2007 and 2011 there were similar percentages. There was little vote. Will he now be the Governor's candidate? Be careful: despite some current disrepute, one of those options was better than the former Barcelona CEO. Now, according to several members, Axel Kicillof replaces Christian voting and is less likely to suffer. But the head of the PJ is the only candidate that does not want.

Third and Intendant Game of Discourse

As a precedent for 2015, he has to pay attention to the governor's choice third parties disagree. Four years ago, Massa / Solá won a prestigious performance in the province. But, for the time being, the third space – Federal Alternative – is limited to national expansion and null Buenos Aires. Massa and Juan Manuel Urtubey are not just a candidate for being a governor.

As a start, Florencio Randazzo, a tour and a good image of the neighborhood suddenly, is silent. He did not direct the mistakes of his final two bets: President Cristina did not compete in 2015, and in fourth place he won the Senate in 2017. maybe his only consolation when he defeated the former president Esteban Bullrich.

Check it too

Still missing, but refusing to offer competitive alternatives to the Federal Alternative, Vidal and his rival Kirchner will be able to explore the polarization. This voltage can boost card cuts.

Similarly, as already stated, it will be essential The key role of the other elections in the Buenos Aires elections: heads. An attachment this year. According to the reform lawmaker, everyone can confirm it but only once. It will be all or nothing. And we know what mobile community leaders may be when they hide their hideout. Treasons will be delivered to save oneself. Néstor Kirchner himself suffered in 2009. If Macrist's leaders share voting and Vidalena Cristina, if they fit them? The circus has not yet been opened. But fun functions are expected. They asked for it.

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