Thursday , June 24 2021

The $ 40 dollar cash flow would reduce the rate of decline and inflation would intensify in December



The strength of the dollars was recovered at the beginning of the week. After rising 3.6%, yesterday, banks and exchange houses were closed at $ 40. Banco Nación, which usually has the best price, ended at $ 39.90. Although the currency was returned to the levels shown at the beginning of October, no-one will flee from the previous returns that will affect other variables, even to see how far they should reach.

Due to the rise in dollars It is impossible to lower gasoline in December. It was a problem that the government was greatly affected, although moderate inflation may help in December. The oil companies questioned, but did not exclude them due to the falling oil price.

But before they question it, they will now dismiss the direct fall. Also, it will be necessary if the exchange rate adjustment creates an upward inflation. It is true that most entrepreneurs adjusted their calculation to $ 40, but probably not in all cases. And, on the other hand, No one is left to stop. That is, yesterday's level, even if the ceiling is temporary.

In November, inflation would reach 2.8%, but no one would return to a level of 3%, which will cause a very negative psychological blow to expectations.

The barter exchange is completely interested. In the last few weeks, Leliq (short-term securities issued by the BCRA) reached 73.50% per year, with over 61% at the end of last week. . It will be difficult to divide the hole in the soil, which will increase the demand for dollars due to risk. The Leliq rate ranged from 61.4% to 61.23% between Friday and yesterday, which is, continued downwards, although much more slowly.

BCRA's impact on the rate of impact absorbs more weight or less than that already agreed in December with the IMF. Both options would maintain a higher rate and cancel the dollar. However, the effect is to delay the economic recovery.

The jump is mostly due to the financial and financial world. Almost all spoke wisely, but rebounded in magnitude for the last few days. With yesterday's rally, money has risen by 9.6% at the beginning of November, at $ 36.40.

Why do the exchange rate "wake up"? There are many reasons for giving some explanations. But in the last hours there were such speculations. Probably one of the problems that has arisen is the Lebanese rescue last week, which resulted in an injection of 120,000 million dollars. The Treasury brought new pesos invoices to $ 35 billion. It's sensible that almost all else went to the dollars every day.

But there are other aspects as well. The distrust of investors is reflected in the danger of the country, and another step increased by 680 points yesterday. The dollar bonds fell again and Bonar 2024, for example, lost more than 2% and is now down 11.3%.

The climate of uncertainty that reflects the weakness of the bonds also infects the exchange rate. In October, the reverse situation occurred. Country risk declined and the exchange rate declined.

Some also linked those who did not pass the Copa Round of Liverpool. The government began to blame for the flexibility of society and the city of Buenos Aires, leaving investors with a sense of concern. To make matters worse, many private banks were run in search of the game from Miami and New York. Of course, they did not return at the best impression.


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