The beginning of 2019 is very similar for 2018. One year ago, the Government put 9,000 USD dollars in bonds according to the history dollar. It lasted a few weeks. At the end of January, a United States adjustment adjustment began and the flow of funds changed, emerging from emerging markets. It is known as the following: meganestatistics, the NDF rescue and the highest inflation in 1991.
This year, the financial markets also began to optimize. The country's risk dropped from almost 830 points to almost 700 points. As a result, vouchers fell by 14% in dollars and less than 12%. Another key factor that reflects a better climate is the dollar: one peso has dropped to almost eight days, and in the last two days it dug a "non-intervention area" on the ground.
The wholesale exchange rate ended at $ 36.90 a week, which is 55 cents below the exchange rate floor, $ 37.45. This lower limit is adjusted to a 2% monthly rate. At the end of March, therefore, the dollar requires at least $ 39.38 to trade, $ 40 current to $ 37.
The central bank and the MFI choose the model chosen, the stabilization of the exchange market and lower inflation expectations according to the plan. "Monetary tightening" was a strict control of circulatory money and a sharp jump in the interest rate. Both simultaneous effects did not lead to any dollar in the field of intervention. And it happened exactly.
now The "Phase 2" model was introduced, that is to say, the dollar bucked the floor of the exchange bureau and the Central Bank accepts. The entity bought $ 60 million between Thursday and Friday, but it did not stop the currency decline.
Given the recent devaluation episodes in Argentina (2014 and 2016, for example) The concern about the return of the exchange rate delay is not reached. It's no coincidence that the scheme designed with MFI has set a "tablita" with a daytime adjustment to set the dollar's weight. The logic behind this scheme is that there is no delay in the dollar for artificial inflation during the election season. As always in Argentina.
The government has two allies: Brazil's true strength has won Jair Bolsonaro since the weakness of the dollar in the world, allowing the Federal Reserve to increase its rate. Both elements make a real exchange rate while maintaining a certain competitiveness, even if it is iron or down. The problem is that inflation maintains its inertia and threatens to "eat" the competitiveness.
On the one hand, the real exchange rate is now at 115 points. The devaluation that occurred in August was 18% less than it was after the dollar exceeded $ 40. But later inflation and currency lag almost disappeared.
The inter-territorial exchange rate was in April, before the exchange rate, at 90 points. That means that According to the dollar, 28% higher than real terms in real terms. Today, the challenge is to take care of competitive improvement, that is to say, delaying exchange rates.
Among the economists, the debate began with the best formula to align with the "non-intervention area" with the dollar. The same question already exists in the economic group already installed. Guido Sandleris prefers slow movement; In the end, it is a game of judgments and faults, as it is the new scenario in Argentina.
It allows the purchase of the dollar to prepare the BCRA for months to prepare for the presidential election and for presidential elections. But, at the same time, it involves the injection of weights, if it were excessive, it could cause an inflation bounce. This happened between 2005 and 2007: in the defense of the highest exchange rates, the weight mega-expansion and inflation reappeared. Until now it has not been controlled.
Another option is the fall in interest rates, which were not moved this week from 59% to 58.5%% Of the year in the case of Leliq. Table reduction may be faster, but it also represents a risk. The sponsors are not happy because they are happy paying their banks, they can quickly return to the dollar and raise the ground up.
Another alternative is to lower bookings in banks at the record level. In this way, the parts of the "cut" parts will be released, but the Central Bank will help to achieve zero-emission emissions. That is why it is not easy to relieve the restriction.
The scenario for the next three months may show the tendency of these first days of 2019. The public and the companies reduced to the minimum expression in dollars. The deficits in the tourism balance decreased significantly and the red trade would become surplus.
The wheat crop was better than expected and was operating with USD3 million. Then, soybean crops will come (it is also planned) and, in addition, the Treasury has a large quantity of excess weight.
The absolute priority of the Government will reach the October elections without much surprise from the dollar. It requires a stable exchange rate, it moves a bit, reduces the degree of uncertainty and changes the general mood after a severe economic downturn.
These days, the debate will accelerate to accelerate the rate of decline. Benefits would be at least apparent: boosting the dollar and at the same time resting on SMEs, lack of credit, increase in cost of money and sales decline.
The expected inflation rate is 30%, the annual rate of 58% seems to be excessive. However, everything will be in slow motion. The memories of 2018 are still fresh. The President of Federico Sturzenegger decided to lower the rates from the beginning, after deciding to change the targets of Casa Rosada inflation. There was a long way to go wrong, and he got up early and spent a lot of time.