Wednesday , May 18 2022

The BCRA will reduce its 60% discount in December?


The first condition would be to meet the result of the Market Expectations Survey (REM) that will be published the next day. In the second month following, the survey is a discount that shows the drop in the CPI expected in the next 12 months.

The BCRA established this milestone to eliminate the level of monetary policy. However, at the end of November, the dollars were returned.

The price of the American ticket went up almost 8% in a couple of wheels and touched 40 pesos. Do not motivate me The Central provided $ 139 billion, between Lebac and Leliq, which was not renewed. Only a portion of the subscriber's Treasury bills in its different varieties. The rest is pressed on the exchange market with semi-machine wheels and small supplies.

BCRA talks about zero growth targets for the annual Monetary Fund (BMI) annually and in November. The growth rate (monthly average) stood at 47% in September, September, 41% in October, and 37% in November, according to the ACBC's daily report. The impact of the new policy was more pronounced in aggregate M2: it grew by 20%. October fell 12% in the last month.

In spite of being elusive, the dollar's awakening relived these results. He prefers the central dome: "The inflation remains high and our currency still suffers from internal and external shocks," Guido Sandleris said last week, a $ 105 million reabsorbment through Leliq.

For this month, the MFI blessed an agreement with $ 82,000 million (not sterilizable) in addition to the BM. Due to seasonal reasons. It does not seem clear that they use that franchise.

"We fully know the risks of saving our economy. We will only increase the Money Base if conditions are conditioned," said the BCRA chief.

Perhaps the Political Declaration Committee (COPOM) prefers control of day to day for the demand for money and not hurry. This month, Lebac's balance will be $ 69,818 million. If the liquidity of the cash liquidity were greater, the anti-inflation achievement could be overcome.

Balance balance to be taken into account: Dollarization of portfolios decreased, but up to $ 25,959 million was up until October. In April, 73% occurred.

Therefore, they can wait another year and decide to delay the reference rate until January. REM is not a strict parameter. Survey critics say that the participants would cast glances at the power station. It is not necessary to remember in January of this year, the REM committed 12 months ago a 18.6% advance with CPI; Rate of 16.5%, annual rate of 21.75% and US $ 22.20.

Perhaps the president of the Fed may change the plans for Jerome Powell's words. Last month, the Fed Fund rate (2% and 2.25%) "is below the neutral level". Thus, the relative rise expected of the 25th of December was expected and the two consensus was reduced by two consecutive increases in 2019. The latest G20 summit confirmed on Saturday. "Monetary policy continues to support economic activity …"

Data boosts stocks and especially new markets. Immediately recovered from the Wall Street indexes, the cryptocentries revived and the ADRs of Argentine stocks jumped. And, above all, the supply of Buenos Aires was also increased, both in exports, in banks and in companies.

The water surface relaxed. But what is happening is not clear yet. Purchase trading is difficult to return. Or if you would also see a bonus and country risk improvement.

It is somewhat like that if the dollar is too sore and if a window drops, it will never be the point of November 8, that is, Leliq for 60.75%. What would be the range of ticket amenities? Reconquista says they are close to 266, for the time being, $ 38 and never more than 40 pesos.

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