It was a complex year, marked by a drop in the dollar, a fall in activity and a rise in taxes, a difficult international context was added to it
Financing this 2018 balance and focusing on financial markets, both internationally and locally, It leaves a binge taste for analysts and investors.
In the first case, the five main reasons for the main reasons were the negative evolution of the main financial variables:
1. Increase interest rates organized by the US Federal Reserve.
2. The war trade in the US and China, at some point in the G20 period, intensified market insecurity.
3. Fear of slowing down the global economy.
4. Relationship between the Italian government and the European Union, facing the serious tax problem.
5. Political crisis in Britain's Brexit.
Already in the national order, The negative factors chain began "28D", that is to say, on December 28, 2017, the Government announced that it would revive the objectives of inflation This year, the decision was interpreted as the loss of the Central Bank's independence.
Subsequently, in April, income tax for foreign investors was added to dissolve bonds and share portfolios. Then the collapse of the contributions was added. the exchange was only to end in September.
Indeed, the new Central Bank President, Guido Sandleris, introduced new money and exchange policy and at least bolstered the pressure of the dollar.
With a curious sincerity of an author, Sandleris himself admitted that "the Government made mistakes."
"I summarize the two main concepts: on the one hand, underestimate the difficulty of correcting the imbalances, I believe that we have made compulsory consistency, correcting fiscal imbalances, correcting inflationary issues and correcting relative price imbalances. The speed of the international conditions changed"He expanded.
These were clearly stated in the years that left the year for investors and sponsors, which had to be a very complex year.
2018: winners and losers
As a result of the fall recorded in December, almost 6% Merval earned a negative balance of 29,900 points a year.
In this context, compared to the performance compared to the evolution of key change for investors, the result was highly recommended: according to the dollar, the stock fell by 55%.
Meanwhile, despite a slight loss of 0.25% in 2018, Merval experienced a sharp drop in inflation, according to private analysts, almost 48 percent.
According to Diego Martínez Burzaco, MB Inversiones Director, they received a historical order of $ 1,800 for dollars on January 31. However, this level did not last long and was punched at 1,000 points before approving the FIP loan. Following the agreement, nearly 1,200 peaks were reached, but ended in 2018 at 885 points.
Regarding the performance of the main activities, Petrobras emphasized that it was one of the few papers, an increase of 161% throughout the year
Always Tenaris, despite the weak performance of the last three months, closed the 39% advance at the same time.
There were much smaller TGS (32%), YPF, 18.2% and Aluar, 13.8% more.
Rubén Pasquali, a market analyst, said "from the perspective of the exchange, beyond the last recession, Among the Brazilian elections and the rise of the dollar, Petrobras became a winner of Merval. "
On the other side of the powerful breaks, they received a set of paper that had significant losses throughout the year.
These actions, led by Cablevisión, fell by almost 50%; then Supervielle, 44% and Metrogas (41%).
Bonds and fixed terms
The declaration of money, the devaluation of prices, highlights the public values listed in the local market.. This, despite the decline in monetary currencies, was reflected in the increase in country risk.
In this sense, Bonar 2020 was the best route throughout the year, with 76% winning and then Bonar 2024 (60.5%) and Pair in dollars (42%).. The centenary Bond was placed below, with a profit of around 40%.
Argentine ADRs and shares Argentine companies suffered a severe blow, especially in the financial sector, in the case of Supervielle, which lost 71.5%, after Macro, 63.5%. The Galician Group, 59.1%. On the other hand, Corporación América's price dropped by 59.5%.
With regard to traditional fixed terms, the sponsors who have chosen this tool have a 35% profit and is below 48% of the price advances.
Parallel to what the UVA decided to do, The banks surpassed the inflation-based interest rate paid.
Pasquali, winners and losers must be measured in the following sections: "It was a difficult year and the phases of winning all the financial practices won by the end of August. At the end of April and the end of August, they were very hurt, because they had gone into two desbalorization. "
In the international context, the stock market sales decreased by 17% in the dollar. Besides the Merval mountain range, the market value of San Pablo also had negative values, which fell by 6%.
Alongside raw materials, they are key data Oil decline, more than 21%, gold decreased by 2%, despite the return of the last wheels.
Regarding agricultural products, the notes are made by corn, the market price in Chicago has increased by 24%, 7% wheat and 5% soybeans.
What to do next December
When investors begin to prepare for the start of 2019, The stock market in Buenos Aires ended the last month of the year with the worst feelings, because there were a few papers that came out.
In this regard, Mirgor and TGN have been mentioned a little, with 16% and 10% advanced, respectively. Edenor completed the table, 5.8% and finally BYMA, 5.1%.
In the opposite direction, a In December, more than 10 years of action were lost, Pampa was the leader of the podium, 13% contraction, then Tenaris and YPF 11.5%.
Ternium had a fall of 11% and a 10% decrease in Cablevisión.
Due to the high volatility of poor performance in December due to the high volatility of the market, doubts about the future evolution of the economy and, consequently, result from the aforementioned companies.
Formalizing very tight monetary policies has a direct impact on the capital market At the very least, he created the exodus of funds that he migrated to at least profitable optionsMoney, Treasury bills and capitalizable weights.
On the other hand, shares of Argentine companies listed on Wall Street and ADRs are very negative, with almost all of them being reduced, in the case of the Mercado Libre market, in this case, they have lost 17.7% and then Corporación América decreased by 17% and Despegar, 16.9 less.
Along with the public securities, the good returns of 5.000 dollars in the $ 5,000 USD55 return, a 3.9% increase and the Pesos discounts, advanced. 1.9 percent.
On the other hand, the discount was down 10.7% in dollars and the weight fell by 5.1%. The centenary bonus did not improve, with a 4.5% reduction.
Linked to bonuses, the country's dangers totaled 820 points a year, starting at 347, confirming bad evolution of long-term bonds. In fact, in more fees and fees, the price of public securities has more to bear.
All this in a context The pace of the retail price in the previous months was significantly lower. Despite the rise in the last wheels, it was almost 38.60 $. In calculating retail inflation, it will be around 2.5%.
On the other hand, the interest rate of the fixed terms, which attracts new entrants, was the average order of 4%.
Thus, The deposit made at the beginning of the month increased by 1.5% in relation to inflation and 2% compared to its behavior compared to the dollar.
What can be expected for 2019?
At least in the first part of the next year, everything indicates that the market will be in continuous operation under conditions that are highly volatile, so it is advisable in the city to be careful.
Among the follow-up suggestions, the progress of the program with the direct effects of MFI and activity activity, and everything that comes from the scope of the election year.
With respect to what happens with stock and stock, the light of hope is Michael Tenenstab, who confirms Templeton Global Bond Funda. In Argentina, it seems to be ready for recovery among the countries begun in 2019.
As a recommendation, the tools selected by the analysts with good security margin are the Letes dollars, currency short bonds and the Mutual Funds Fund (FCI).
In this regard, Rafael Di Giorno, the Profit Investor Director, proposes 2020 Bonar (A020), which now accounts for 11% growth: "The government is making a difficult scenario" undermining the "debt". If balance of tax figures and reducing the BCRA rate, its price should be recovered. "
Simultaneously, Fabian Ciarlotti, Wealth Management Head ICBC, argues that "international markets are a very important issue for quality, that is, investors are looking for less risky assets and, of course, it is in favor of Argentina."
"In terms of local level, the monetary policy will continue and the rate will remain high and there will not be a lot of money in the market, which will result in a general brake on the business, the dollar will lower, good business expects true real investors, As we approach the elections, we will see the progressive dollarization of the portfolios"complete
To convert bolsters to high-risk Argentine assets, Lucas Lainez, Puente's managing partner, recommends short-term sub-sovereign bonds with guarantees of hydrocarbon exploitation and "quality" Negotiable Obligations.
In the meantime, it includes some bets, which are currently not being evaluated, in a special time of the market, Proficio Director recommends adding Mirgor shares.
Lucas Gardiner, director of Personal Inversiones Portfolio, "is a part of the local scene, part of the political and economic analysis to measure what will happen."
"This also affects out of economic signals, which is a binary scenario that may arise next year, so the assembly of financial portfolios may be very different depending on the position or hope," says Gardiner.
"At this time, we recommend higher exposure to dollars in conservative positions, such as Letes, although we assume a higher risk that a particular position is of interest, Bonar 2020, that is, guaranteeing almost a FF" umbrella. "PPI executive.
In terms of Pesos positions, the rates being understood are maintained in real terms, which is considered by Gardiner Lecaps and FCI, which is considered to be an alternative alternative to a traditional fixed-term, now with more payments and liquidity.
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