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The dark economic outlook for 2019



According to a well-known query, next year there is no hope.

December 29, 2019

The level of economic activity in 2018 shows negative behavior in the second quarter and a change in expected short-term is expected.

According to the Counselor of the Economy and Regional Council (E & R), the first quarter of 2019 continues to follow the same path and "will be complex to a level of activity that will continue to suffer".

"Then, in the best scenarios, the best thing to expect is the economic slowdown and positive (warm) numbers that appear in the second quarter of 2019," said the report's authors.

However, "companies would be a more statistically significant improvement, that is, companies (especially SMEs) will not have a sustainable improvement in their thermal voltage," they said.

However, "if there was a new exchange in the second half of summer, dollar, inflation, inflation expectations and interest rates would rise, the level of activity could rise to 2019."

"Our basic scenarios estimate GDP growth of -3.0% (2018) and 1.5% (2019) GDP." In this regard, it should be taken into account that this GDP is closed this year (-3.0%), said performance would leave a statistical trace of 3.1%, which implies a very statistical motivation to predict and tackle the coming years of the next year. "

According to budgets, the level of activity would be 3.7 points less than the level of activity at the end of 2019 at the end of 2015.

It should be noted that there is no level of activity in order to have an "outbound" 2019 jump or recovery effort, "said E & R specialists.

"They predict that the private sector credit will remain scarce, the interest rates will continue in 2019, in positive scenarios."

"On the other hand, if a new exchange rate is generated and if the dollar returns a jump (non-phenomenon), inflation expectations will rise again, inflation would jump again and the rate of interest would continue to rise even further. registered in October, "they added.

Regarding the economies and regions, "in this scenario, nowadays, it would be less expensive and more expensive than today, the level of activity would be more than expected".


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