Dollar value it will end with a straightforward weakness First month of 2019 The currency has given more than 2% and The evolution of the Central Bank as a buyer It was Forex zero reaction in the evolution of the type of change.
That market is much fueled by liquidation With the offer of major exports, gravel wheat, plus Re-inserting the overdraft funds take advantage high interest rates and very low valuations of domestic stocks and bonds, determine that the dollar has a low demand $ 800 million per day, low volume in the first month of the year.
Diego Martínez BurzacoMB Inversiones analyst said " external financial situation by giving it sending capital to the region, especially to Brazil and Argentina. "
Then, 38 pesos were sold below in the morning National Bank US currency is sold $ 38.10, Lowering 30 cents or 0.8%. This is the price under 3 December. In the average It is on the banks of the Buenos Aires capitals 38.07 pesos.
As of January, the Central Bank made purchases of the foreign market in the wholesale market, since June 2017 there was no initiative. This Thursday he bought others USD50 million Average price of 37,0896 dollars. Thus, purchases of 560 million dollars in the first month of the year accumulated, margin inside agreements established stand by International Monetary Fund (MFI), about $ 700 million per month.
The currency company proposes to buy back currencies when the wholesale price is lower The "non-intervention" area floor, this Thursday $ 37.86and $ 37,886 for February 1.
from one Traders Research "The purpose of the BCRA is to move the exchange rate within the mobile band It would change and for this reason, the market expects the definition of today and tomorrow If you raise the amount of daily purchases From $ 50 million USD 150 million to create a greater demand for foreign currencies ".
Martínez Burzaco said Infobae "Considering the use of the Central Bank" Additional replacement instruments Do not allow such intervention within the field of intervention Banks gradually re-compose their exposure In exchange for what the foreign currency is worth, now it's 0%. "
Martínez Burzao stated that "the Central Zone Accelerate interest rate decline and surgery to fine-tune, measure Market Sensitivityso stock of fixed terms Do not go from the dollar in a "particularly" significant way election year at that moment Dollarization will accelerate portfolios ".
Meanwhile It has been reduced by more than 4 percentage points January, according to 55% of the year belowthey still have enough to activate the brake again they are the economy and they are for a possible rise The dollar, in this conservative state, can not compete in this area in such countries. At the same time, High rates and "peace of mind" It is now essential slow down inflation.
MB Inversiones economists also "TATE reservation requirements Banks, BCRA open the liquid lid to reduce the cost of money and to stop paying the lace " Guido Sandleris Central Bank for the organization This allows banks to reconcile with LELIQ to continue depositing deposits. Thus, "the bank would be the role of financial intermediation," estimates Martínez Burzaco.
DOLLAR CHEAP DA?
The evolutionary rate of the rate of performance in recent months, today Free mobile band below 1.7%, add tension when it is considered inflation remained at a sharp pace Slowly down.
Green card arrived registration on September 28, of $ 41.85 for sale to the public and $ 41.25 for wholesaleA movement that exaggerated many analysts. Since then, in the end Four months ago the dollar lost 10%In this period, average retail prices increased by around 14%.
So, the Argentinean dollar Purchase power fell by 21.1% in October and January, when all other financial alternatives offered positive income.
Of course, exchange competitiveness Not only depends on the dollar. du appreciation of other currencies Commercial partners, in the case of North American currencies, assume a "back lag" of limited duration.
For example, In Brazil, the dollar has lost 9%, from September 28 to 3.65, from 4.01 on real, this Thursday. In this sense, the Argentine peso shows the currency of the main trading partner.
Also, we do not remember that the price of green areas in Argentina was 90% higher than it was a year ago, closed January 2018, € 19.65 in wholesale trade and $ 19.93 in commerce. that's it rate almost doubled with inflation 47 per cent of the year.
According to the General Multilateral Exchange Markets Index (ITCRM) Central BanksThe Argentine competitive weight is today's competitive advantage Similar to September 2014 and September 2011, and a 15% higher than on December 17, 2015, When Mauricio Macrio's administration exchange control or "cepo" was deleted.