After the black day of the Argentine financial assets All eyes will be put on top of the dollar's behavior today. The internal exchange rate was counteracted by an increase of 3% and not exceeding $ 45,000 on the boards. but The main question is whether the International Monetary Fund (IMF) resources will have enough of 60 million dollars daily in the midst of an attack on Argentine stocks and bonds.
The values of the government fell the worst and the country's risk reached 950 points. The highest pressures were for short-term bonds, such as the 2020 Bonus, with less than $ 85 and reaching 20% in the year. Faced with this collapse, The market begins to discount the chance of a new instant default Argentina, as soon as next year.
The expectation of "contagion effect" is not reasonable in this context. The increase of capital resulting from the disarmament of the Argentine assets positions arises and, therefore, the increase in dollar demand. The offer, however, would be inadequate in a state of horror like today.
The uncertainty that precedes December 10 in Argentina is a disaster for investors. It's hard to find economic downturns in this financial debacle (which includes more than 12% of Wall Street's leading shares). Argentina shows symptoms emerging from a recession; The flow of the current account has dropped by almost half (so there is less foreign exchange in the country), and the need for the following year and 2021 funds is not so significant. from expiration point of view.
But there is little point in conducting economic or financial analyzes when there is a huge question mark that will already win the election. Dolarra is also dependent on these doubts and pressure has increased in recent days. However, so far, the negative climate of the other financial assets has not been reflected.
Will it hold the dollar or shoot it? Investments between this question was very widespread yesterday after closing the wheel. They hardly believe they can face this attack. A few days ago there was a huge change in expectations: it seemed like at the beginning of the week the lower limit of the exchange rate bands. It can now be said that it could go faster, the maximum limit set to the end of the year, 51.45 pesos.
If this dollar level was not enough, the BCRA will have the opportunity to intervene and sell for sale at $ 150 million per day. It is possible in such a scenario that this limit varies according to the power of the "power of fire" in the monetary authority. However, the program with the NDF was intended to go beyond the roof of the currency exchange floor.
It's clear in US dollars that they will be settled through the dropper. Hope if the exchange rate rose, why should you settle for a lower speed? It could lead to the fall of the peso, and for the economy, but Mauricio Macri's election options would be a great change.
The increase of the monetary value would be more inflationary in the next few months, which could have been released from May. That is why the new financial crisis, which is the result of the dollar, is the level of pollution that will be monitored in the coming weeks and in the coming weeks.