Tuesday , August 11 2020
Home / argentina / The negative trend in economic activity in 2019 has been warned

The negative trend in economic activity in 2019 has been warned

Level economic activity The negative behavior of the second quarter of 2018 shows a negative trend and in the short term it is not expected to change this trend. As you say Economic and regional consultancy (E & R), predicting the same path in the first quarter of 2019 and "complicating the level of activity to continue to resist".

"Then, among the best scenarios, the best thing to expect is that the economy stops and positive numbers appear – in the second quarter The authors of the report "For 2019," said the companies would be a statistically significant improvement. I mean, Companies, especially SMEs, will not have sustainable improvements thermal sensation, "they said.

However, "in the second half of the summer, the new exchange and the dollar, inflation, inflation expectations and interest rates have risen again, the level of activity can rise to 2019." "Our basic scenarios estimate projections of GDP of 3.0% (2018) and 1.5% (2019)," they added.

And they continue: "In this regard, it should be taken into account that if the GDP was closed this year -3.0 percent, the yield will drop to -3.1 percent, which is very difficult to face a statistical backpack and the next year." According to their estimates, the level of activity at the end of 2019 will be 3.7 points below the level of activity at the end of 2015.

E & R experts have warned that "the private sector's credit continues to be scarce, as interest rates continue in 2019, even in the most optimal scenarios." "Additionally, if a new exchange rate were to arise and the dollar's leap back, inflation expectations would rise again, inflation would jump again and the rate of interest would be higher at current and more current levels,They added.

For economic and regional "scenario, credit is less and more expensive nowadays, the level of activity will be more than expected." Actually, the changes in the economic group of the coalition government are committed to optimizing 23% inflation over the next few years.

Meanwhile, there are many economists who leave the mandate of the president's administration Mauricio Macri. The former director of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), Aldo Pignanelli, forecasts 35% of inflation in 2019. Meanwhile, "the inflationary slowdown in 2019 shows that inflation slowdown is slightly lower than in 2018, but not It is in no way 23 percent. "

Source link