In the last three years, the forecast of some times that the growth of the Argentine economy was boosting failed, as no one had ever recorded new stone projections. With a low profile, analysts agree that the delayed recession in that country in eight months It will be extended to at least Monday. And the next year would start in the second quarter, very enthusiasticRecovery At the moment expectations are met, it is essential that there is a sustained exchange rate, that the interest rate goes down and that the heat of the summer heat is recovered.
In the forecast of its G20 forecast, Christine Lagarde, the director of the IMF, forecasts what would happen next year in 2019 with the local economy. "We will see the positive development of the program being developed in the second quarter of 2019 April, May and June. At that time, the change started. We have to see a significant drop in inflation. "The government adheres to this view, according to Nicolás Dujovne's ministerial team, the green shoots that will appear in March.
Specialists consulted economic It's OK that there's a good chance that the recovery comes in the fall, but anyway There are dangers around.
Gustavo Reyes, economist of the Mediterranean Foundation, should not forget that "Today, more recession extends from the beginning In the second quarter, the decline was strong, but the drought was very important. In the third quarter, the negative impact of agriculture was felt, but trade and industry increased. Now, however, the reversals have spread in several parts: some of the few networks that were not part of the network, such as banks. With rising tariffs, credit spread is declining. "
We have to wait until the second quarter to change luck. He distinguishes the "exogenous" and "endogenous" factors from the recovery of the king. It is between the first positive impact on harvest This year, the gold medalist will be revenged in 2019. "But it's the key achieve endogenous change. To return to recession, we will begin to circulate the uncertainty, the low consumption, the devaluation and the inflation expectations. "
In this sense, Reyes stressed that "the recession begins with its work on inflation"The indicator below shows that" the mid-September inflation rate is higher than 7%, it is more than 4% in October and is expected to reach 2.5% in November. Until a week ago, the strong recession and the tranquility of the two sides play a clear role. we will have an inflation downturn. A reactivation requirement is necessary, depending on the decrease in inflation, the hopes of deceleration will fall. Therefore, it is not difficult to continue to fall for the interest rate. So the wages would be lost and they could start earning a bit at the end of the year. "
Reyes has stated that "the positive scenario is not without risk." Especially refers to the slowdown that the economist threatens in the United States, China and the European Union. "The big block will be one year worse in 2019. But it is positive to accelerate growth in Brazil and Chile."
For Ferreres' analysis, "in the immediate period, we believe that the recessionary phase of a more rigorous nature has been lagging behind, We do not expect a generalized dynamism to sectors that speak about a strong recovery. "Fausto Spotorno, the consultant's director, points out that recovery will endure a competitive rate of change, which is the growth of agriculture and Brazil.
The evolution of the purchasing power of these factors is added. Guido Lorenzo, the chief economist of the consultant, LCG says, "there are signs It may be wages recycling. You are already seeing about 45% of the transactions that are already trading, that is, the largest Commerce. If this path continues, the improvement between the first and second quarters may be in the room. It should be noted that the income from the Treasury (such as pensions will be indexed this year with inflation). Macro level is not appropriate, because it creates stiffness, at least not allowing so much revenue to fall. "
The good news would come from construction and commercial sectors. "It may be on the side of investment some surprises Profitability expanded in sectors, as was the case with construction. The cost ratio and the square meter prices create a great deal of investment for investors, despite a decline in the short-term demand. "Lorenzo also states that" the commitment in the first quarter will be in favor of exports. Not only for the good harvest, but also for the dynamism of the goods we have been manufacturing this year. This can cause this increase in export volume Be about 15 or 20 years old. "
However, LCG economist has stated that "2019 is not a danger. On the one hand, there is a political uncertainty about the elections, which, at the same time, can lead to a negative feedback that generates less investment, which makes it worse. The second risk I have seen is consistency between monetary policy and 40% of parity. The growth of 0% of the currency base is therefore a contract policy there is not a constant to see how to fix the macro. And thirdly, in 2019, it would be possible to create a capital created by an external event or political uncertainty. "
According to EcoGo, Federico Furiase stressed that the economy "They will make the floor in November and it will slowly recover in December, the growth of paritarias, the growth of inflation, the rate of decline and the evolution of the wheat. "
Furiase warns that the recovery will be slower in real wages and credits. "The double adjustment of tax and monetary adjustments divides dividends and an interest rate on one floor. The challenge is to postpone the true foreign exchange rate of foreign financing to wage inflation against subsequent inflation 2018 A buried one has lost. And see what margin the Central Bank has to lower the rate and sustain the economy without creating a new jump that threatens inflation expectations. "
Even the most optimal scene, it's almost impossible to finish 2019. After dropping 2.5% of GDP, 2018 will drop a significant statistical drag. For Reyes, it will be a 1.5% fall in the coming year. According to Furiase, "it will be difficult to raise the annual average decline, but a quarterly recovery of 0.6% can be a 2% and three-year growth in the fourth quarter."
"I'm not secret," says Lorenzo. "We see a marginally marginal drop in 2019, which implies an increase in activity areas, the impact of clues".