Tuesday , January 26 2021

This money is not approaching the land of the intervention area



The final wholesale closure was $ 37.37, 16 cents lower than the lower limit. Between $ 48.19 and $ 37.21, the exchange rate changes according to supply and demand

The Central Bank continues the restrictive behavior of monetary policy.

On Friday, the price The wholesale dollar was $ 37.37 and today it dropped to eight cents. Thus, Exchange rates came to the ground floor of the Central Bank intervention area. On Friday the limit was $ 37.21. Monday will be $ 37.28 per day updated, accumulating a 2% increase per month.

According to economists, the dollar will continue in this territory in the non-intervention area. The dollar price rises between $ 48.19 and $ 37.21, yesterday, according to supply and demand. yes It goes beyond the borders, automatically, the banks have & # 39; stabilized & # 39; he does.

Since the scheme began, the exchange rate never crossed in the middle of the corridor, but it has always fallen. At the beginning of November it was eight cents, according to Clarín.

For analysts, the trend will continue in the next days.

Bárbara Guerezta, economist Arriazu Macroanalysts, "approaches the dollar closer to the ceiling".

Among the reasons, according to the economist, "the amount of the economy is transactional [el dinero para que las familias y personas atiendan sus obligaciones], It is difficult to create a dollarization process just like it did in 2018, this year we will also see electoral uncertainties. "Also, the economist adds another two reasons: to deflate the demand of the dollars: the Treasury procurement of the Central Bank and the Treasury.

Gabriel Caamaño, adviser to Ledesma, agrees. "I see the land near the earth, and if it is drilling, it will be temporary."

"We see the lower limit, but not broken," said Jorge Neyro, ACM.

The risk of countries fell by 100 points last week, in which context, yesterday, the retail dollar fell 11 cents.

Economic money increases by December for seasonal reasons (holidays, Christmas bonuses). Therefore, In January, the demand for weight decreased with respect to the previous month. According to Caamaño, the BCRA would exceed the monthly monetary target of 15,000 million dollars. The bank would give a cushion to lower the interest rate. Currently, the amounts of bills and deposits are minimal in terms of GDP, says Gueres.

The Central Bank explained this week how it would affect the wholesale dollar – the market that causes banks and companies – it breaks down the floor: Bills should be purchased at 50 million dollars per day, if the weight exceeds 2% of the target value of the MFI agreement. As a result, the rate goes down.

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