Wednesday , April 21 2021

Why do investors now let their dream come true?



Financial expectations

In the days of the G20 summit, expectations will be about what will happen in the Argentine state. The bad signs of the economy

At the end of the year, they are directed at investors who are moved to the famous Christmas rally. Over the first few months of the year, when the wins of the main markets have been won and there are so many red stars today, the fantasizing "rally" may serve as a part of hopefuls. that exists

However, there are concrete signs in complex outdoor scenarios. There are positive local stabilization signals, although the trial has not yet been published. The study is carried out every day, says the personal portfolio analyst Sabrina Corujo La Nación.

A key role is played by the file. And it is known that uncertainty will not disappear in the coming weeks or in the first months of 2019. That is, nowadays, the voluminous increase and the clear issues and noise that are emerging.

In this combination, and externally, they are largely or somewhat added to economic signals, the fear of a slowdown in world growth (a delay should be avoided in the next 12/24 months). Even though the rise in the United States of three years in 2019 began to decline to 2016, so money policy was not as aggressive as expected. One good thing that generates new markets (logically) is not a new crisis.

In the short term, a monitor point will be G-20. It will be part of the study and before the scheduled US meeting. and China, the future of commercial tensions. Also available in Argentina. These will have at least two axes: economic (measured according to possible agreements or measured by probable investment announcements) and political (according to 2019 elections).

"As a variable for continuing tracking, dollar and interest rates will continue to grow. There are good signals in the field: inflation has fallen (in recent fluctuations), the deficit in the current account accelerated its correction and the fiscal deficit reached more than the target (and therefore the goal was to achieve a balance in 2019). Previously, the expected data show a great recession, "explains Sabrina Corujo.

The success of the new scheme will be to maintain the exchange stability. And there were signs in that week, in that sense, could be positively in principle. Lebac was a week of liberation and received the Treasury bills.

If the BCRA3500 wholesale dollar is a benchmark, the invoice increased by 2.5% per week and by 1.9% per month. Monetary money continues in the bottom of the non-intervention band. The Leliq rate, on the other hand, maintained a downward trend, based on forecasts of anticipated forecasts (expected) in a scenario predicted to change the weight of 60% of inflation. Combined equipment also contributes to the attractiveness of weight-bearing assets.

On the other hand, the default credit exchange (a risk-taking risk) jumped again, a horizontally over 5 year-old, more than 600 points closed in 629. The last height is below (September 835 reached), when there was no agreement with the IMF II. Implied probability default rose again at this time to 39%. Probability, at the beginning of the year, was lower than 20%, says Corujos in La Nación.

The current curve and a few months ago's analysis reflects the sharp rise in the CDS. There are many reasons for the mystery: Central Presidential Elections. What happens with the level of country risk, awaiting the political scenario. There is a lot of water under the bridge, so there are a few more lines at this time.

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