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With inflation and rates above 50%, they expect a delay in the recession and expects GDP to fall far short of expectations



In the first months of the year, due to inflation acceleration, the Central Bank (BCRA) will not lose its monetary policy, that is to say, overthrows the rate of more than 50%, which is why some analysts have revised their GDP forecasts or wait for the recession to wait.

The consultant Econviews, led by Miguel Kiguel, reduced its growth forecast to 1.5% to 1.8%.today expects inflation to rise 32.5% this year to 30% last year. In this year's Budgets, the Government announced a fall of 0.5 percent.

"The outcome of the recession is not as quick as in 2016 and 2014, due to incentives in other crises and accompanied by interest rates, but this time we do not see something, "he said. Lorena GiorgioEconviews economist.

On the other hand, the tax policy must be reached at zero deficit, and the money is much more difficult than the result of the agreement with the IMF. And while inflation is slowing down, it is expected to extend over time, which is recovering private consumption.

Private consumption accounts for 66% of GDP In 2019, average real wages dropped by 5% compared to 2018, even though they are earning a monthly career, according to Econviews. In the inter-annual period, in October or two months before, the consultant expects real wages to progress.

"This year, All agriculture will improve the recovery of the drought base. But everything in commerce, industry and construction will be a slow start; They will see the impact of real prices and real estate sales and credit access, "said Giorgio, expecting a positive year-on-year change in August and September.

Last year it began in the second quarter of the recession, with drought, and was deepened by the exchange volume and stabilization plan.

The advice created by Macroview, Carlos Melconian and Rodolfo Santángelo, agreed to be in recession and the recovery will begin in the field; not in cities, not in industry, in construction and in commerce.

"Now that we see inflation going down, the cost will be the level of activity"he said Pablo Goldín, Macroview Director

"I do not dare say that in the fourth and third quarter the economy will grow. I can not ignore the fact that we are completing a recovery microscope, "added Goldin.

The government and the private sector expect recovery in activity in the third and fourth quarters. but Macroview advanced a "J" recovery with an "L" reversal with the cost of lowering inflation.

Understand that BCRA has the "ball" to determine the level of activity The amount of money does not grow, prices are 3% monthly monthly from November to February four months. And inflation will fall to 1% per month, but the BCRA will keep its policy in line with the FMI agreement.

"We believe it will continue continuously and that the economy will go a bit more"said Goldin. In addition, it has been "difficult" to say that the Treasury has the money to save money on public spending through public spending through public spending.

On the other hand, "monetary oxygen" is the only one in exchange for dollars purchased by the BCRA.

Why does it not help the impact that investments can make, that is, it is not expected that dynamics are slow in the face of the uncertainty of the election and the slowdown in exports.

However, Jorge Vasconcelos, The director of the IERAL Foundation of the Mediterranean, "exports can be dynamic".

"It seems China and the United States are going to facilitate relations and trade growth is very goodSignals are important, "he said.

Meanwhile, other experts believe that while the exchange rate stays, the expected recovery will prevail.

Right now, the activity index Ferreres, the IGA-OJF company registered a 5.9% fall in January, tenth consecutive time.

But the growth of 0.25% per month is surprising. "We should emphasize that this result should be interpreted with great care, given the abnormalities of some industry branches," the report said.


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