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Is the end of the war in the US and Chinese trade dangerous?



What is the result of the U.S. Chinese trade war, in the United States, delaying the rising tariffs threatened on March 1 and the United States President, Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping?

In both the meetings held in Washington and Beijing, the two parties act from two ordinary books in front of their speech points. That is a real progress. According to reports, the final turnovers of bilateral business talks reached a consensus on peripherals, such as monetary stability and intellectual property rights, making technological advances, services and regulatory barriers unchanged.

But there is no agreement on international structural barriers, which are ready to face the needs of foreign suppository firemen in China, or on security issues, telecommunications and banking.

It has been significant in China to restore the role of state-owned companies, both at home and abroad, requiring mixed ownership and management improvement rather than controlling the sector's main sectors. The "Made in China 2025" objectives, the strategic program of countries with high technology sectors has not changed.

The United States decided to postpone the rise in Chinese goods prices, leaving the problems proposed by Mar-a-Lago in the proposed Trump-Xi proposal in late March, and the risk of failure.

Unfortunately, the parties set out in the next weeks are setting important issues on mechanisms and planned agreed indicators. The result would be end-March.

However, it may be temporary, the United States would initiate new bargaining actions, if Beijing fails, if it promises reform promises before the 2010 presidential election.

However, in the case of adopting unimportant measures, the minimalist agreement is turning into a fundamental case, that is, the purchase of high-traffic US items in China, the opening of the Chinese market to American companies and window dressing rights, intellectual property rights and forced technology transfers.

A more sustainable and sustainable agreement that reduces the risk of rising fares in the next 18 months could be a minimum result.

There is another dimension of the lessons that Americans underestimate. Simply put: Why is China pulling out the risk of increasing the rate temporarily? Beijing definitely reminds us of traditional actions in the United States. Xik has to be able to show its home audience that more than one commercial deal has managed to delay large rates.

Beijing may press Trump to allow the US Department of Justice to negotiate a settlement for negotiating with Huawei's Chinese telecommunications company, refusing to suspend US sanctions, and Canada to release Meng Wanzhou, Huawei's chief financial officer and founder of the group's fiancé. He was arrested in December at the request of the United States

It is also possible to recover existing US rates in specific product categories. If there is no offer for the immediate rate relief, the Chinese President will not be able to use U.S. Acceptance of the agreement.

Trump administration officials will continue to disagree over more commercial strategies at the end of the game phase. This can be added to distrust, but it is likely that the Trump of the wrong Chinese confidence will encourage some enforcement enforcement.

Trump believes China's support is needed after the North Korean nuclear deal has been signed, following Kim Jung's unprecedented Korean leader in Hanover. Trump anticipates a budget saving for Beijing's business, but rather the downgrades of Hanoi to the Pyongyang concessions.

What will the United States companies do about the "expected" business outlook? The US corporate reaction is likely to start from a criticism of "hopes", due to trade breaks, and Chinese companies after subsequent treatments in the US do not have the promise of buying and selling purchases of more open market purchases. . After all, most of the agreement has been in November from 2017 to November.

But the modest contract is not the only result. The Trump-Xi peak offers no less than 20%. It should be noted that Trump shares shares in shareholders and Palestinians in the administration, with a sharp decline in growth in China this middle.

This view recognizes the "now or never" view that the United States should use to take advantage of a tough approach in the previous weeks. This means that the spectacular Florida solar distribution can not be ruled out.

Kevin Nealer is the CEO of The Scowcroft Group, former US government lawyer and principal researcher at Washington D.C International Strategy and Center.


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