The Canadian economy unleashed an unexpected spectacular race in 2018 and will start in February of 2019 in a healthy note. But the signs of weakness have raised a key question: how long will they end up?
During the year 2018, the Canadian unemployment rate was below the age of 40 and the strength of employment was maintained, when the economy was deeply upset.
Handoff was also good, with a growth rate of 2017 for the country, mainly due to strong domestic spending. We have to wait a bit for the last numbers, but advertisers say that 2018 is likely to have a strong growth of two tenths of a percentage.
But, since 2019, strong economic growth has begun to show its age.
Last month, thanks to the economic evolution of the federal government, a two-tenth increase is planned for 2019, but the expected figure will be much lower in oil prices.
Jittery Markets, Unexpected Predictions
In addition to low-cost combustion, experts are in financial markets, the American economy's forecast, a key contributor to Canadian growth, will start to cool and the UK Union's divorce will be difficult. global economy
We also have a thousand threats: escalating the war trade between Washington and Beijing.
In commerce, Canada filled the year with great uncertainty, including the complicated negotiation and negotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Many non-commercial people will take it to the new year. In the face of the NAFTA 2.0 confirmation, more drama would be brought, America's steel and aluminum tariffs will not be damaged and it will continue to meet the two major Canadian trading partners.
"The cyclical downturn is always a reflection and, as I have said, the effects of a trade war between China and the United States may have a negative impact on the global economy," said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a recent Canadian press conference.
"When we are preparing rugged water, we will find them."
Taxes increase, high domestic debt
In Canada, among serious problems, such as increasing home equity, rising interest rates and slowing the growth of sales, "half-dreaded" half a year at the start of 2018, Matt Stewart said, Canada.
The highest interest rates, Stewart added, have been successful at home expenses, as the main driver of eight of Canada's best economic.
"It's been a long time since we had a recession," Stewart said. "I still think that most of the news are still positive, but there is a growing risk."
It is expected that breathing is consumed by excessive consumers, business investment is seen as a critical source of growth. But Stewart has said the transition has not yet materialized because investments are not affected, as a result of competitiveness concerns. Businesses are not sure how to make the most of money in Canada.
In an effort to boost investment, Ottawa announced announcements to raise the amount of tax incentives for advertising. The taxpayers will wait, and the federal changes would be enough to invest in Canada.
Craig Alexander, the chief economist at Deloitte, said the economy will have a healthy growth in 2019, but due to some moderation.
The final stages of the business cycle
"We are at the end of a business cycle," he said. "This does not mean that a recession is in the corner, but we need ten years to recover in the economic promotion, in the expansion. The economic cycles are between eight and ten."
Alexander said the markets are likely to be overreacting with us almost another chance of falling. It is likely that it continues to grow.
It will affect the evolution of the economy as it survives, he added.
For example, the energy sector has great challenges.
Part of it comes from the latest evolution in oil prices, but it has also been an additional discount on the Canadian crude oil price, due to flood oil transportation in Canada.
"This sad news is Alberta," said Alexander. "They have hardly recovered since the last recession".
Ottawa offered a monthly support package of $ 1.6 million for oil and gas companies.
Alberta, however, requires federal support to bring its oil to new markets.
Loss of GM plant
The Ontario industrial sector will also face a major obstacle to 2019. General Motors announced plans to complete its plan for a year, leaving 2500 people unattended and preventing regional economic pain.
Montreal's economist Doug Porter has said that Canada has made a small step in 2018 and is expecting more growth.
"There is, of course, a simple observation of financial markets [economic] cycle, "said Porter." We do not believe that the risks of the recession are very expensive at this time, but we believe that the North American economy will cool in 2019. "