Wednesday , September 28 2022

Surveys and employment: Reasons for the Central Bank for the INE figures



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Employment and wages were the most important economic indicators of 2018. For this reason, GDP and investments were 4% and 6% respectively, respectively, as jobs and remuneration were stable. However, yesterday they also took another mix, despite the implicit conflict between the Central Bank (BC) and the National Institute of Statistics (INE).

BC decided unprecedentedly to collect a special section on Monetary Affairs in December December. And it was the first scandal for the first time. The reason? The Agency, in particular, concluded that the figures for unemployment, remuneration and INE work are not reliable.

If this document "analyzes the impact of significant migration flows, the employment growth registered since 2016 was higher than the surveys, an increase in the calculated index of the INE upward".

The Central Bank experts confirm that they reflect the labor market, "which are not very cheap, but they represent a clear movement". This means that relevant information, such as differences in behavior in different groups or changes in flow composition, does not appear in public analysis or debate. "

A methodological problem?

Surveys and immigration factor return again. The main vibration of the Bank emphasizes that employment statistics are based on extrapolation of population polls, by means of expansion factors, and at the same time based on projections of the population, updated on each census ". That is what they say, indicators can not measure the magnitude of phenomena, such as immigration.

In fact, it must be borne in mind that over the last three years, 120 thousand and 190 thousand people have been absorbed by the labor market and the INE has not achieved this.

So, is Chile blind to understand reality in employment? "It is not necessary to dramatize, so that the surveys are easier to face with the changes in population, as happened 2 years ago, it is important that the INE already make corrections," said Juan Bravo, macroeconomic analyst Clapes UC.

Of course, the experts agree that "there are some elements that are in the process of correction: the sampling frame is not updated and recalculated by the expansion factors. Correction gradually increases the figures of employment of migrants gradually with reality."

Meanwhile, Jorge Gajardo, economist at U. Central, said that "BC sees the failure of the democratization projection to be very old and that it would not make a move and the tool would fail". But are the INE figures so bad? "The labor market provides its signals, and if there is much more employment, it should be more noticeable in the wage bill, that is to say, because the case has not stopped", says academics.

In the end, Gajardo says "I understand the general basis of what BC explains, but it seems to be a dangerous signal and the government is very appropriate." It is true that a more complex set of indicators is needed. to make a more convincing statistical base, but they are not convincing. "

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