(Source: panoramic view)
Li Xiaodan magazine economic observer The Chinese economy's "big adjustments" period remains critical, and this process will take 3-5 years. China Bank is a ruling issued by China's economic and financial report on November 20. According to the report, China's GDP growth will be around 6.5% next year, and it will predict the external worries and internal "big adjustments" overrun.
Zhong Hong, Assistant Director of the International Bank of the Chinese Bank, said the dollar price would rise in interest rates at the end of December 2018 and increase rates of interest 2-3 times in 2019, the US economy will maintain a positive growth but the growth rate will decline.
"Global liquid hedging in the developed economies can create a market, bond and exchange rates in the market. The weakness of the growth of the economy is high leverage, high external financing needs, short-term foreign currency portfolio, unstable investors and commercial friction risks." Zhong Hong said.
Chen Weidong, the director of the International Bank of China's Financial Bank, said that in 2019 the global economy is being questioned and that the global economy is facing major risks. China expects good management.
The three main risks of the global economy in 2019
In 2018, the recovery trend in the global economy continued, but the distinction was obvious. The high growth rate of the high economies was close, and some emerging market countries experienced a turbulent economic downturn.
The report indicates that the dangers of the global economy will increase. The interest rate rise will be the "main theme" of the 2019 monetary policy. At the same time, US economic growth summits and the global burden of debt can become a potential risk. It's worth a look.
From a regional point of view, the expansion of the US economy has advanced, and European recovery has slowed down; Asia-Pacific region is usually stable, and some countries have increased financial fragility; Latin American, Middle Eastern and African migrations will gradually recover.
The current business model is being rebuilt, the multilateral trading system is frustrating, the reform of the WTO is difficult to move forward and the regional trade agreements are rapidly emerging. It reduces the overall liquidity of cash and challenges are emerging from the new markets.
Zhong Hong said in 2019 that the global economy faced three major risks: US economic growth was peak, Sino-US trade fictions and the overall burden of the portfolio increased.
Currently, financial and non-financial developed in developed economies is highly leveraged and boosted, with a total debt of $ 113 billion in 2008 (200% of GDP) of $ 167 trillion (about 250% of GDP). Increasing the interest rate debt costs will result in corporate profitability and debt repayment, credit quality and bankruptcy.
The emerging economy in 2019 is the year that lasts most of the debt. Almost $ 2 trillion bonds and loans will expire, and the bank debt divestment will not be up by 14% of the GDP, a little lower than in 1999. 17% point. Among them, the dollar debt rose to $ 3.7 trillion.
The report believes that the US dollar is still grateful, the rising costs of financing and the risk of investors falling due to the collapse of the balance sheets of foreign lending countries, and the payment of debt and refinancing pressures. Global trade will consistently slow down the reduction of foreign exchange of the future economic economy, increase the current deficit and increase the difficulties of re-establishing top-level foreign trade negotiations. Local currency depreciation, debt collection, and the pressure on capital exceptions can be increased to deal with the circles.
The report also underlined the fiscal stimulus policies, such as the use of Trump tax cuts, although its effects will gradually move away from 2020. US tax cuts for subsidies and increased monetary policy, the sustainability of US economic growth is greater. Challenges, global economic recovery is more uncertain, and will also boost confidence in the financial market participants, creating fluctuations in US stock markets and global markets .
In China, advanced economies increase liquidity and require a special trend in capital flows.
Wang Youxin, the chief financial investigator of the International Bank of the Chinese Bank, said China's current capital flows are fairly stable and that 2019's capital flows will be more stable.
However, from the third quarter onwards, the risk is rising and foreign payments are also the same. This phenomenon needs special attention.
Wang Youxin believes that to ensure stable capital flow, China can use good adaptive tools, such as price tools and regulating capital flow management, and openness to promote cross-border inflation. The balance of payment can be seen almost a year. The net income of bonuses and capital investments has increased, including the A-shares of Alum to attract capital income.
Transboundary flow management for the future, Wang Youxin said management is even more demanding.
External factors and "large adjustments"
In 2018, due to the major changes in domestic and international environments, China's economic growth stabilized and slowed down, with "three stability and two stability" in general.
The report estimates that the GDP will increase 6.6% in 2018, 0.3% down on the previous year. The CPI will increase by 2.2%.
"The Chinese economy's saving situation will be more difficult in 2019," said Zong Liang, chief researcher at the China International Finance Institute.
The reports indicated that the Chinese economy is "critical adaptation" that is critical, with major divisions, important adjustments and large-scale integration of industries, different regions, institutions and financial, traditional financial and new finances. Chinese economic GDP grew by around 6.5% in 2019, slowing down slightly in 2018.
Zong Liang said in 2019 that active tax policy needed to reduce taxes and reduce rates and add tax deficits properly. Monetary policies had to promote "broad credit" for "broad currency". Normative policy must comply with the general direction, but it must be monitored. A good pace to avoid "risk risk", which is waiting for new risks to solve risks.
The Chinese economy should protect against external factors and frequency resonances as "reconciliations" frequently in 2019. The Chinese economy's current adjustment includes four aspects: the new and kinetic energy makes conversion faster in different industries; The other is "ice" in different regions. "Bi Heaven", the southern region is economically active, the structure is accelerating and the overall performance is good. However, the Northern transition is difficult, the investment is slowing down, the business environment must be optimized and the overall performance is quite weak (see details of this report). Traditional financial change and change in pressure. New financing has been "constant" constant "barriers" and rules have become issues. From the competition phase of the contest contest, each has felt unprecedented pressure. The Chinese economy is in a critical period that goes through the "middle-income trap". Changes in the market, rising costs, increased competition and strict supervision have had a major impact on the traditional development model. Technological innovation has "difficulties", that is, "intricacy is difficult" and "innovation is more difficult". How to ensure the stabilization of the economy at a certain level of growth, change and change is an important test.
Zhou Jingwei, the macroeconomic and political director of the Chinese Bank's International Financial Institute, said that setting a "steady state" policy would be geared toward tight supply of financial resources, that M2 and social growth could be at a lower level, and able to get private and small and micro business financing will be everything. Better sex is expected
"Liquidity will be reasonable and money will be analyzed again, the stock market is stabilizing and is expected to face it. It is necessary to strengthen the deterioration of the financial situation of the company and its financial environment. Local governments will increase their debt and Fed will increase interest rates. Financial markets like the one can overcome expectations, "said Zhou.
In 2019, it was a concentration of local investment bonds. Li Peijun, a senior macroeconomic researcher in the Chinese Bank's Financial Institute, said local government debt growth is pretty fast. The acceleration of 2019 infrastructure investments will control local government debt risks. There are three options: increasing requirements and reducing the risk of local debt. First of all, accelerate the opening of the door and increase the payment of central government transfer; Secondly, guide the projects that have been cleaned too quickly during the pre-season season; accelerate special third-party projects. Bond gap
The macroeconomic recommendations of the 2019 report are: macroeconomic policies should pay special attention to the same recalcitrant frequency of "external adjustments" to avoiding rapid economic growth and addressing new changes, new problems and new economic challenges. In accordance with the development of high-quality development, the relationship between growth stability, development and risk prevention, and "steady" (stable employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment, stable expectations) and promote more policy.
It increases the environmental uncertainty about the development of the Bank industry
In 2018, the environmental uncertainty about the development of the banking industry has increased and new markets are emerging in the market; Banks have remained basically stable in several countries, but Fed's rise in interest rates, trade fictions and strengthened banking sector regulations are gradually growing.
The report believes that some structural structural changes in bank development have occurred in 2018, reducing bank turnover and revenue growth; some risk factors increase and affect bank capital and profit scales.
Since 2018, Fed has maintained its rate of increase. The crude targets for the funds have risen by 2.25% up until now, rising by 0.75 points since the beginning. Fed has continued to increase its interest rate with the key tone of global monetary policy. In relation to the rise in the interest rate of the Fed, some developed economies have risen interest rates after another, and the interest rate policy has been gradually approaching a long-term neutral level. For example, the Bank of England reduced its rate of policy to 0.5% and 0.75%, and the Bank of Canada ran the rate of 1% to 1.75%. The Eurozone and Japan, with quantitative rigidities and negative rates of interest rates, are also committed to interest rate normalization.
At the same time, the monetary policy of emerging economies is diversified. Following Fed's growth in interest rates and the depreciation of local capital and the pressure on capital inflows, following the economic downturn, policies to increase interest rates continued. As a result of the crisis, the Turkish economy rose from 7.25% to 22.5%. 6%, India and Malaysia have also grown. Some market countries have made cuts in interest rates in the face of a downward pressure on domestic economic growth. For example, the Brazilian central bank reduced the reference interest rate to 14.25% for 2015 to 6.5% today; Russia fell 11% to 7% today; The People's Bank of China has maintained a stable policy neutral policy and the rate of interest rate has declined steadily.
Wang Jiaqiang, chief of the Bank of China Financial Research Institute, said that it is an important function of the bank of assets and liabilities. Since the duration of the Bank's liability is less than the duration of the asset, the monetary policy is neutral in the policy cycle. The consolidated margin of interest of the Bank can be restored gradually, creating an important profit-making support.
From the point of view of assets and liabilities, at the end of the third quarter, the active and liabilities listed assets totaled 158.1 trillion yuan and 145.9 trillion yuan respectively, 7.1% and 6.7% respectively. Bank assets and liabilities at the same time were 264 trillion yuan and 243 trillion yuan, respectively, with a growth of 7% and 6.7% respectively. At the end of the third quarter, the listed banks had 53.9% loans, an increase of 1.8 percentage points increased year-on-year and deposits accounted for 73.4%, with a year-on-year rate of 0.89%.
The report made 10 predictions for the global banking industry in 2019: 1. Banking industry has increased environmental pressure 2. Global financial supervision has become more pronounced and some countries have become loose 3. The regional outsourced structure of the banking industry has improved; 4. The economic growth of the developed countries is not synchronized and the banking industry is highly differentiated 5. The banking industry expects new challenges in developing countries 6. When the return of the source, the growth of the Chinese industrial banking scale has been stable, with an 8% growth rate. The rate of growth in the banking industry in China has steadily increased; 8. Chinese Contribution Banks have deepened their reforms for a shorter period. 9. The good policies of Pratt & Whitney sector continue, and the digital inclusive financing will have an important role in development. Fix it, it allows you to transform your bank wealth management business.