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Since November, the whole steel market has dropped sharply, and this week has dropped significantly. The data show that the national belt markets have reduced the price of refining from November to 300-750 yuan / ton. Specifically, the Chinese steel industry won over the first three quarters of the year, increasing by more than 70% year-on-year, with low profits and losses for many years to achieve the best performance in the history.
In the best year of performance, why prices have risen? What are the stabilization prices of steel prices? Invited to CCTV Finance Review on November 24thof
Li Xinchuang, Dean of the Institute of Metallurgical Metallurgy and Planning Research, and Guo Liyan, Researcher of the Chinese Academy of MacroeconomicsGuest studio, in-depth study.
Steel prices drop Who is pushing his hands?
Li Xinchuang: The expectations of the market are not optimistic, as the main reason for the decline in steel prices is
Li Xinchuang, Dean of the Institute of Metalurgical Metallurgy and Planning Research:First, the downward pressure on economic growth has increased, especially steel investments, such as the fall in real estate investment and the automobile sector. Secondly, steel prices are at a high level and companies are making production more profitable to achieve profits. Producing production projects and transformation projects have been produced and the offer has been expanded. Markets exceeded supply. In the third place, commercial friction has a direct or indirect effect on market expectations. This is the most important factor that causes prices to fall into this stage.
Guo Liyan: The pressure goes from the downstream to the middle and top.
Researcher at the Chinese Macroeconomic Research Institute Guo Liyan:According to data from the e-commerce trading platform of steel, in November there was a sharp decline in transaction data. The major steel business inventory was a big disadvantage, but the social inventory was faster and the pressure was declining. Company inventories, that is, traders are curtains to buy goods, and consequently upstream steel inventories have led to a reduction in prices.
Li Xinchuang: Steel prices have fallen, but support may also be requested
Li Xinchuang, Dean of the Institute of Metalurgical Metallurgy and Planning Research:First of all, steel prices fall, but I do not think it's going to fall significantly. Continues to keep China's economy steadily, so the demand for steel will be high. Secondly, despite the low price of steel in previous years, this year will be small in size, but it is an industry-intensive and high tech industrial steel industry. There is a need for a lot of investment in production and R & D, so the healthy development of the industry is in need of unprofitable non-profit support. It is also an internal support.
Stabilization of steel prices. Where is the challenge?
Li Xinchuang: production control, market stabilization
Li Xinchuang, Dean of the Institute of Metalurgical Metallurgy and Planning Research:It is important not to control production and to increase productivity.In 2016Year2018National competence1.5Billion tons started at the same time1.4100 million tons of steel production capacity, along with the advancement of technological aspects of industrial productivity in recent years, has created conditions for market price improvement. The boost in the growth and production of production has also increased significantly. We have to deal with the regulation seriously.
Guo Liyan: Making a job, adding high-level training, leveling is the key to stabilizing prices.
Researcher at the Chinese Macroeconomic Research Institute Guo Liyan:In the fair market I really agree with the market question, in the bull market and the market. Structural reform support is actually a combination of increase and subtraction: excluding the bottom end, this is the dividend of the balance, but the price of this round is recovered; That's why many steel companies work better; The next step is to add time.
Before researching Jiangsu and Zhejiang, some of the steel mills were restored to upgrade the final products of the latest products. When I visit,11The price of this month fell, they were not affected, since autumn is not their main steel products. For this reason, I believe that green development and development is an important development in the future prices.
Li Xinchuang: High-quality development is a basic way for steel business
Li Xinchuang, Dean of the Institute of Metalurgical Metallurgy and Planning Research:The whole country is becoming a high quality development, and steel industry needs to adapt to this general trend. First and foremost, we need to do a good job of green and low carbon development. Secondly, we must accelerate the constructive restructuring and make the industry more developed. The third part is to accelerate steel. Intelligent manufacturers are more effective and efficient in steel, while boosting the standards and brands while improving the steaminess of Chinese steel.
Guo Liyan: This downturn in prices is an inevitable process to move on the market to dynamically adjust supply and demand.
Researcher at the Chinese Macroeconomic Research Institute Guo Liyan:There is no need to worry about whether the price of the industry is sold a few years ago or not. Currently, the steel industry's structural industry and the non-profit distribution of the same are not the same as those of the previous one, the result of the structural reform of supply-side reforms. As a competitive industry, the future of the steel industry chain, from production to sales, in the case of profit and loss, is a dynamic adjustment.
In the winnings chain of the black industry chain Who is eating in the tiger's mouth?
Now, all black industry chains are concerned about the production of steel production. Looking back in the last year, I saw the valve price as an example. The price was not very good, except for the beginning of the year. It has fallen lately. Hot coil price is worse than operating, why? Due to the emergence of new industries, the coil will exceed 330 million tons of future power. The price of raw materials is of great importance, the steel industry prepares production and the raw material is ready to pay more. Prices of cocoa have risen steadily, coal prices have risen steadily, and scrap prices have dropped slightly. This phenomenon is very important. In summary, the process's short-term gains have been compressed and short-term steel mills have begun to grow raw materials. This logic is also applied to co-operatives and iron in the future.
The terminal application, the 5.7% growth rate, the real estate growth rate, the downturn of 9.7%, the real estate investment investments and the construction of facilities, and the construction investment in September is -3.45% the first one was -3.24%; Installation engineering -7.97% First -7.28%. Investment in demand for steel can be included in the drag phase. From now on, the demand for steel in the short term will reach the season's offer. Nowadays, the demand in the center is slightly weak. Steel traders are afraid of getting merchandise. What should I do if I can not sell my goods for ten or twenty days? In the long term, the long-term fixed-asset investment investment slowed down.
The investment is divided into three parts: real estate, manufacturing and infrastructure. This year, the real estate industry has undergone major changes. The growth rate of the new construction area and the real estate construction rates are good, and Jianan has dropped. After obtaining land, they intend to enter the sales process as quickly as possible, so accessing the sales department is planned to control the cost and control the progress of construction. There has been a change in attitude in the real estate industry this June and July. It will not begin until May, but several construction will begin in July. What is the reason? The market can change and the land needs to be realized, otherwise real estate businesses will lose money in the future. The real estate purchasing growth rate has changed, with a negative growth rate of 10% in October. Regarding the current situation, the construction of the real estate sector is common, and some of them are not going anywhere. The order seemed good. Last week, the demand dropped.
Last year, environmental protection has construction limits, but this year there are no restrictions. The slight demand for this year, in May and July is quite good, but in winter it is not expected to extinguish the environment. The stopover is in winter. It is being built from north to south. . The real estate sector expects a turning point. However, despite the cumulative growth rate of accumulated sources of financing, future expectations have changed with real estate companies. Such expectations will change the speed of acquisition of land and the investment speed will also change, and the steel demand will be lifted, especially when cutting.
It is receiving manufacturing investment and investing in the industry naturally when it comes to profits to expand productivity or technological transformation or invest in environmental protection requirements. What should I do to make a profit decline? Whether the investment growth rate is stable or not likely to be unstable, and the profit of industrial companies has slowed down the growth rate.
Infrastructure investment growth is stable and investment growth is very low. In the context of the great local debt, how is the local government investment infrastructure enthusiastic? Now it's a question mark. Because local governments are more concerned about responsibility, if debts arise, responsibility can not be given. From a long-term perspective, the growth rate of investment in infrastructure will not rise. China is in the transitional period of new and old growth models. The transition period is precisely where the new model of growth has not been adjusted and the old growth model is diminishing. However, we must be confident in China's future economy.
The peak of steel consumption is coming to an end and it will start on the last weekend. Depending on the situation known to merchants in the steel mill site, for example, merchants ask for steel goods demand, and steel mills usually have only one or two specification or specification, and pull them out. It appeared last week and I wanted everything. Although there was no obvious change in price and quantity, a steel mill inventory occurred.
In light of all the advances, consumption has increased. September's apparent consumption was 91.55 million and in September it was 92 million. From high-frequency data, the national construction materials transaction has significantly reduced the last week.
The merchants are wiser to enter the outside season in December. Steel steel inventories fell, the intermediaries did not get their goods, and the steel wrench stock rose. Is there a decline in the stainless steel inventory, a decline in passive decline or active decline? The decline in assets means that steel mills are beginning to sell, this sale will not be a good price, but it will become pressure. From the Lange Steel Retail Purchasing Management Index, all interests have weakened.
In December, when the winter repositories begin, the attitude of steel business and steamers is very different. This spring, the steel trading company earns a lot of money to make merchandise. Several years ago, trading of steel business was exchanged. Everyone was seriously injured. If the steel mills do not provide winter prices at an affordable price in winter, the interest in steel trading companies in the winter warehouse is not great. Next year combined with the problem, selling next year for steel and selling next year, for the next year downstream demand, nobody dares speak now. Macro is more demanding due to a difficult situation, the new Politburo meeting does not mean that the real estate market has begun. In the future, steel products, particularly building materials, will be partially removed. The demand for steel products may be a little weaker in the coming year.
The annual production and sales figures for October were quite good, with signs of decline. The car growth rate was down by 10%, a 10% decrease. This shows that downstream consumption is some problems, including other signals.
The steel output of steel, in October, was 67.74 million tonnes of ironworks, with an inter-annual growth of 12.87% Gross steel prices increased by 9%, increased by only 0.08%, and wireless production decreased. Steel ratio for pig iron production is gradually releasing short-term steel mills. Short-term steel production is subject to profit restriction. If this piece is destroyed, the market will be reduced and monitored.
The production limit of this year, from spring to the present day, is screaming out for limited production, but production has not exceeded the production limit, production is backed by environmental protection. In the last two years, steel companies have also been good, companies are also very comfortable and have a high level of environmental protection, a steel mill caused by environmental protection costs of 200-300 yuan per tonne of steel. They already have the equipment to meet the requirements. In the second, the steel industry's profits have remained high. In order to maintain the environment, other technical measures can be taken to increase the output. To see the phenomenon on scrap process, the final result is that it is not a steel outlet. Descent and rising
In the steelmaking purchasers' index, there is a huge interest in everyone, because they are profitable. When will production be reduced? If the profits of the steel companies are partly compressed, only the decline of production will occur. Recently, profits, environmental protection, the rate of exploitation of the kiln due to the average daily output of crude steel, the impact does not change the market expectations, especially today, the small demand has been very low. At the end of the year, middle demand has become an intermediate offer, which is not very beneficial for the offer and demand.
This is the operation of the main companies and wire production, because the profit margin is quite large. The steel export volume is relatively small, because domestic steel prices are very good. According to the inventory of steel companies, data from the Chinese Iron and Steel Association show that they are accumulated libraries. Next question: Is production and insured prices cut and sold? From the current point of view, the output does not allow too much release, so the accumulation process will continue. If the inventory is somewhat high, the price drops down as steel began to sell.
Iron imports are still high, but imports have declined in October. Shipments can reduce commercial profits. If mine gets the price rise and spread, a lot of people will be imported. The market reflects trade profits. From the point of view of imports and production, individuals believe that there is no supply shortage. Where is all the focus? It is a game between mines and steel mills. In September, the price of minerals increased. Steel companies at this time were renewed, and the number of days available on November 9 rose to 29 days, and in recent years it is quite high. Then, if the pace of renovation of the steel mill is stopped. If it is stopped, it will soon be reflected in the shipment reduction. Looking at the current situation, the evolution of steel minerals has taken place. In normal situations, renewal capacity can be reduced. From today's point of view, there is still a relatively large location.
Home mining is quite weak because they have little effect on my prices. Mostly, the imported mines, starting from scrap steel, when low output processes are compressed in a certain way, begins a long process of compression when the iron is priced compressed.
The supply of coke is not variable and there is a fairly high position in ten production. In fact, it is important to point out that the production of coke plant can be limited, and the annual capacity of use per year decreases year by year. If the production of steel companies continues to rise in the future, the supply of coke may be damaged as next spring. Recently, steel frescos are being rebuilt with coke creatures, and they are made up of some companies. One of these is not completely renewed. Now price negotiation is in a very delicate process. Locotional fabrics have dropped 100, and some mills fell by 50%. Now they are quite balanced. Once the recovery of the Koke is gradually being completed, the profits of steel production can be compromised, it may be in the future and the coke spotting may fall in the middle of the next month. Where is the nucleus The production of steel production is crucial.
When profits from steel production begin below, steel rotations increase production and reduce costs, so that profits can be guaranteed, but when steel prices continue to fall, pressure will go down. As steel profits continue to fall and they continue to fall, steelmakers will reduce production. The core of the future market is the profitability of steel production.
From today's point of view, the demand for steel is entering the season season, the medium demand reflects supply, the trader reflects the intermediate supply, when the trader goes to the store at the time the price is correct. Every year, winter storage is not stored every winter every year. The price of the key is correct. When we talked about retailers in the North, sometimes 3500, which is appropriate, is a good and inadequate steel mill in the future.
Steel production is not as good as expected. Although the Chinese Steel Association has released some data, the decline is very limited. Steel mills renew their pace and start the decline in profits, steel production is ready to increase. The demand for raw materials is quite good, but if profits continue to fall somewhat, we will make a profit. Koke, short-term supplies From a current perspective, coal companies do not have a very inventory because steel mills have more demand for goods. The second cocktail companies never had an inventory because it determines their ability to face risks. The most consumed companies have no skills. There is now a turning point. The activation point is: the stainless steel renewal can be completed.
We have to pay attention to the production of steel production. Nowadays, the profits of steel production are less and less. In conclusion, steel mills start scraping upstream from one to the other, and then we see steel prices rise rapidly. Regarding the current situation, high-yielding productive flows have an eye-catching inventory pressure. When the price reduction is achieved, the efficiency of the production will be reduced. Earnings in production will lead to a decline in profit. There are different opinions, probably in the past, because the outward season has come because the profits of the industry chain are being compressed. In the end, when we talked about steel companies, everyone is silent. This year, next year macro-synthesis will be transmitted to the industry. This year's steel price decline could be greater than last year. The merchandise's winter storage depot will appear when the price drops are the most significant. (Zhonghui Futures Li Wei)Go back to Sohuera and see more
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