Wednesday , October 27 2021

Fed raises interest rates again, Chinese central bank chooses "not to follow" –


Fed raises interest rates again. The Chinese central bank chooses "do not follow"

Fed has raised interest rates for the fourth time this year, raising interest rates based on 25 points; The People's Republic of China maintains an open market, the operating rate has not changed

Yesterday, on the 20th of December, at Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced a speed of 25 basis points. This year, Fed earned interest rates four times, the Chinese central bank only continued once and the other three were "not moved".

China's central bank does not change

The Fed announced that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Commission) fund fund fund has a target of 2.25% -2.50%. This is the fourth time, Fed adds interest rates this year, rising interest rates in the interim quarter, and interest rates rise at every point of 25 points. Likewise, the ninth rate was due to the rise in the interest rate in December 2015.

The US announced a rate hike, the Chinese central bank did not track. According to the transaction in the open market business in the People's Republic of China, on December 20, People's Bank of China will return 150 million yuan of interest rate bidding method on December 20, the average 7 day period for scaling up 120 million yuan and winning bid 2.55 . %; The average volume of 14 days is 30 million yuan and the winning offer is 2.70%. Both interest rates are similar to those of the previous one, and the central bank maintains an open market rate.

This year, Fed won interest rates four times. The Chinese central bank only followed once and chose "not move". When Fed launched its interest rates, the People's Republic of China corrected the compensation operation and won the interest rate for the winner. Medium-term loan comfort continued. In June, September and December, the central bank did not change.

Before Fed's interest rate, 19 in the afternoon, People's Bank of China announced a medium-term lending facility (TMLF), such as small and micro businesses and private financial support. The TMLF funds can be used within three years, and the operation rate is more than 15% higher than the medium-term loan facility (MLF). Currently it is 3.15%. Likewise, the loan repayment and redistribution amounted to 100 million yuan. This movement is called "interest rate corrected" by some institutions.

According to the market analysis, the central bank's money policy continues to be independent, and it will continue to have the idea of ​​"broad currency + broad credit". Wang Qing Dongfang Jincheng's top macro analyst says China's central banks will not force the market to open their operating rate or even create the highest monetary policy rates. The main reason is that the downward pressure on housing economies is high, and regulatory authorities emphasize the importance of counter-cycling. Adjustments, from the second half of the year, have led the central bank to manage liquidity management objectives with "reasonable stability" and "fair amount".

Haitong Securities Research indicates that the Chinese economy is in the current cycle, and it needs relatively loose monetary conditions. With the US dollar rise in interest rates expected, restrictions on external conditions improved, and the Chinese central bank curved its downward trend in the currency market. The creation of TMLF, the large financial institutions, will provide a stable long-term financing source, will boost support for small and medium-sized businesses, reduce financing costs, reduce the medium and long-term interest rate and a loose monetary level of credit they will create it.

The RMB exchange rate is quite stable

After the Fed announced its rate, the dollar strength increased. The US dollar index was two-week low and rapidly increased from 96.6 to over 97. The dollar dollar index fell at 97.0264 on Wednesday and the decline was reduced to 0.03%. On the morning of December 20, the U.S. dollar index keeps over 97 fluctuations and falls into the afternoon. The press release fell by 96.67%, 0.36%.

Renminbi was quite stable on December 20, the central match of the US dollar against the US dollar set to 67.68 points. At 8:00 p.m., at 10:00 p.m., it fell below the Renminbi sea and offshore 6.91 mark and the high Renminbi Intraday offshore fell to almost 100 points. In the afternoon, on the shore, the RMB reached 6.90 dollars against the dollar, and RMB appeared offshore, 6.91.

Wang Youxin, a researcher at the Bank of the International Financial Institute of China, said Beijing News will keep the dollar index short-lived in a short time. As continuous growth progresses, interest rates are gradually emerging as a result of the negative effects of economic growth and the market continues with the US dollar index. There are no longer enough hopes and expectations of upsurge. In recent times, the depreciation of RMB has been alleviated. "Breaking 7" rumors have gradually disappeared. Fed's interest rate rise will not disturb the market's strong feelings, and the RMB exchange rate will also change in current levels.

Wang Qing, the chief macro-analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, said Beijing News's rise in the Fed interest rate is not obvious to the US Dollar. In the short term, Fed raises interest rates or puts RMB on the exchange rate, but it will not drive the RMB exchange rate to move. Short-term repayment pressures mainly show China's monetary policy as a direct source of monetary policy between China and the United States. China's monetary policy continues to fuel the money-saving process, with the Fed's monetary policy orientation. The market sentiment factor can lead to the depreciation pressure of renfinbi.

Wang Qing suggested slowdown in US economic growth in 2019, the shortfall in the US dollar growth rate could hardly happen, and China's and US trade relations are unlikely to be renewed. Thus, at the end of the year, the RMB exchange rate repayment can be controlled or changed in both directions at 6.90. Beijing News Reporter Gu Zhijuan

■ Watching

The main stock indices in the US fell by three

The Fed rate chart published after the Fed meeting matrix chart shows that expecting a 3 or 2 percent increase in interest rates for 2019. The CICC research report believes that the rise in the interest rate has fallen sharply from the point forecast for the map forecast: the 2019 rise rate has declined, based on the attitude of color and the market expectations; Long-term interest rates have also dropped. For this reason, the Fed really remains the need to raise the interest rate over the neutral interest rate, but the pace of interest rate growth will slow down dramatically.

When Fed announced the rise in the rate, stocks in the United States ended. The three major stock indices earned less than one year. Dow closed more than 350 points with an intraday amplitude of almost 900 points. As of Wednesday's closure, Dow fell 1.49% to 23,323.66 points, S & P 500.54 fell to 2506.96 points, and Nasdaq dropped by 2.17% to 6636.83 points. Stocks in the US high-tech stock closed across the board, dropped to 7.25% in the United States, Apple and Amazon dropped by more than 3%. Most Chinese people also closed. Alibaba, Jingdong and Baidu fell 2%.

CICC Research has reported that the latest refunds in the US stock market are continuing with concerns about future growth and investing more, especially at the end of the year, with the closing of financing factors. At the end of the year, the general market market and the investor, with no emotional fragility, did not make enough purchases, that is to say, the creation of volatile fluctuations caused by the sale of pressure. The FOMC did not have any significance for investors' feeling and for the stabilization of the functioning of the market, allowing the market to continue in the short term, by overcoming the emotional and position factors.

Pan Xiangdong, the chief economist of New Era, said Beijing News, the president of the Fed in less than the expectation of the market in Powell's speech, which led to a downturn in the market, and the three major stock indices in the U.S. had a huge loss. In the short term, stock market shares have fallen in US stock markets. However, the Fed's interest rate growth will slow down in 2019, which means that the international share of the shares can be enhanced and partly increased by the investment trust. (Gu Zhijuan)

■ Analysis

Little foreign investment impact

Fed's interest rate growth responds to an investor group that is expanding "foreign exchange." Investing in a Beijing News magazine about dollars from friends' circles, from the morning of 6 o'clock in the morning, he published around four friends to promote foreign exchange investment within four hours.

A brokerage macro analyst told Beijing News, the rise in the interest rate of the Fed, in general, with the dollar strength and relative repayment of the renminbi, will have an impact on investment and financial management over the short term, but in the long run the Fed interest rate rise The market impact is not very intense.

In a conversation, a Beijing financial trading bank said Fed's rise in interest rates increased the reliability of its investors in the US dollar, nowadays the hunger for investors has risen somewhat in wealth of dollars, compared to the past, the difference is not great, nor is the wealth of the US dollar In search of products, after rising Fed's interest rate in September.

According to the Rong360 monitoring data, $ 22 USD management products are now available for sale, 6 products of wealth products, 12 non-managed wealth products and 4 guaranteed dollar management products. The financial period is 1-540 days. Profitability stands at between 1.1% and 3.6%.

In addition to the money wealth management products, the aforementioned brokering analysts say that reporters have non-profit individuals, foreign investment has been influenced by many factors, and that international relations and policies have had a close relationship. Fed's interest rate rises are an outward investment. In particular, the impact on investment in most equity will not have any effect. Beijing News Reporter Zhang Siyuan

The trip to the United States can be less enthusiastic

After the rise in interest rates in the Fed, part-time part-time jobs in the United States are frustrating. "There are people who buy less things, of course, and many people have their purchasing intentions, the US dollar exchange rate will increase, and it has become a more positive attitude."

Xiao Jia hopes to travel to the United States at the spring festival, saying that journalists have been up against the dollar beforehand, when the dollar exchange rate was low, so the loss is not expected.

Mr. Wu, a researcher in the United States, believes that, despite the increase in the US dollar exchange rate, the US Dollar's unstable exchange rate brings in many dollars in dollars. When the money exchange rate is low, Fed's exchange rate increases interest rates. The impact of the rise will not be very high. At the same time, Mr. Wu told reporters abroad for a long time, and he learned that Wu had a long-term impact on the Fed's interest rate growth. Beijing News Reporter Zhang Siyuan

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