(Economic evaluation) How will Fed's interest rate financing workshop be channeled to change the rate of interest?
China's news agency, Beijing, December 17 (Xiabin) has put Fed's last position on "eagerness instead of smell", the Fed's last 2018 fixed interest rate meeting.
At the beginning of October, President Fed, Powell, said: "We can overcome the neutral level, but the neutral interest rate can go a long way." At the end of November, Powell said that interest rates are still less than a Sexual spacing.
"Long Track", "a little below", Powell's attitude has changed considerably over a month.
At the same time, many Fed officials questioned the hikes of the future and stressed the Fed's November meeting on the comparative interest rate in September, paying close attention to the negative effects on the economic interest rates.
The US President of the Fed of Minneapolis said Kashbalik said that Fed should stop the rate of interest rates, and the rise in interest rates would lead to a recession in the US economy.
Fawad Razaqzada, a technical analyst at Jiasheng Group, told the Chinese News Service that some macroeconomic data in the US are not expected in the near future, and some Fed officials were very careful about getting a better economic spread. At the same time, Fed's interest rate career has criticized US President Trump.
The main researcher at the CITIC Securities Securities Department clearly states that the fundamental changes in the United States are the real reason to change Fed's attitude. According to data from US inflation that is still recovering in the US economy, the road is not smooth. That is why it is imperative that the Fed's attitudes are cautious.
The market expects Fed to raise interest rates in December when it is nail, but the previous situation will frustrate expectations?
Former Fed Vice President Fisher believes that the Fed's interest rate rise should go ahead, but does not mean that December's interest rate for December would not be denied. It is impossible to predict the slowdown in growth. Fed does not have to keep up with the pressure of the economy, and it can wait until the beginning of the next year or the first quarter to make decisions.
"Unless FTS interest rate increases, the Fed interest rate will be lower than the historical standard or will be lower than the final forecast," Fisher said.
Razak Zada has stated that Trump's pressure based on the Hike Cycle Criticism and its base base, the US central bank may change the emergency tone, which will cause the sale of the dollar. Fed's growth rate is likely to weaken next year, the current strength of the US economy means that Fed will diminish in December.
Although the recent non-agricultural report is published, although the previous ones are less than forecast, the previous employment data is also confused, the market sees Fed's December growth as a high probability event.
According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Fed funds still believe that future traders still believe that the Fed's rise in December is 83%, but the probability of increasing interest rates in the market in 2019 has been implicitly in the market. Two thirds of traders expect 0 or 1 rise in the price in 2019.
Morgan Stanley, US chief economist Ellen Zentner believes that economic growth is based on weak expectations, Fed expects interest rates to increase twice the next year, March and June, as interest rates will be suspended. . When the economy accelerates again in 2020, Fed will raise interest rates again.
Jiang Chao, the chief economist of the Haitong Securities, believes that the latest revolt in US inflation has slowed down. Many future factors may slow US economic growth next year. Fed's rise in interest rates is stepping up as the pace of future economic interest rates based on the performance of economic data. Flexible decisions. Although the probability of a rate increase in December is still very high, it is likely that higher interest rates will be raised in 2019, which means that the hike cycle of the current interest rate may begin early. (End)