Monday , May 29 2023

The Khashoggi case may change the Middle Eastern leadership


, estimates are Lina Khatib, leader of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.

"The Khashoggi crisis is a major geopolitical challenge for Turkey, which seems to handle this issue, but Turkey can not force the exit of MBS, in this respect the ball is in the US," he added.

"Opportunity" for Erdogan

For Erdogan, at the "geopolitical" level, the point is to revitalize the Muslim Brotherhood, which Riyadh wants to marginalize in the Arab world. In Egypt, it was ruled out of power, and in 2013 the current president, Abdel Fatah al Sisi, was brutally suppressed.

The Turkish leader attempts to make Riyad's concessions in Qatar, a rich emirate with good relations with Turkey, but since June 2017, the blockade of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Alliance.

"I think Erdogan sees the opportunity to attack MBS Arabia, MBZ (Mohamed bin Zayed) and Sisi Egypt's triple" entente, "sums up Soner Cagaptay, the Washington Institute of the Middle East Policy." This is the three Arab countries oppose Erdogan's policy, which is favorable to the Muslim Brotherhood, "he added.

Sinan Ulgen, President of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy (Edam), in Istanbul, believes that "the weakening of the MBS represents Erdogan's victory in view of the situation in Turkey in Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood".

"But it remains to be seen whether Ankara will be able to change the current situation to a lasting advantage that would strengthen its regional influence on the disadvantage of Saudi Arabia", adds.

Nicolas Heras, the New US Security Center, considers the Khashoggi case "to be seen as the last chapter in rivalry between Turkey and Arabia to assume the leadership of the Muslim world."

"Put MBS on Your Site"

Erdogan "believes that you can use the Khashoggi case to place Mohamed bin Salman in and place Saudi Arabia with him," he added.

While Erdogan is careful to have direct contact with him, Erdogan tries to put pressure on the Saudi crown Prince Karim Bitar, according to the International and Strategic Relations Institute (Iris).

"Erdogan is aware of weakening MBS on the international scene and seeing how he can make the most of it," he says.

Western countries are distrustful and can put pressure on the end of the Yemeni war (where Riyad is leading an Arab coalition) and the abolition of the Qatari blockade, according to experts.

"I believe that the blockade of Qatar is about to be completed soon and the Saudis will find ways to support the United Nations efforts in Yemen," said Steven Cook of the Foreign Relations Advisory Laboratory.

Bitar adds that the United States supports the MBS for its expected peace process to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and stop Iran.

Washington could urge the MBS "to approach Israel and keep a hard line against Iran".

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