Posted on November 17, 2020 at 5:01 pm.
“We have begun the decline of the epidemic”. This Tuesday, the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, on BFMTV and RMC, welcomed this “Government measures” – November confinement, but also October place calls “Wool”. But reopening shops or places of worship is not topical, because “We are still in the phase of significant active circulation”, he stressed.
In fact, the virus has been much heavier for two weeks. On Monday, the positivity rate of the Covid tests fell to 16.5%, from a few days ago to 21%. The incidence, which reached 500 cases per week per 100,000 population at the end of October, is 284 per 100,000. In terms of hospital and critical care admissions, they are declining day by day. As a result, the number of Covid patients in intensive care is stabilizing at around 4,900. However, it has not yet reached the peak of hospitalizations, with more than 33,000 cases Covid at a time on Monday.
In this context, it is very difficult to climb the 7,000-bed occupied curve at the same time as the Covid recovery curve – as expected in the event of a holding failure – or even 6,000 beds – a scenario for successful success. Olivier Véran, however, defended himself against alarmism on Tuesday. Including non-covid patients “So far we have about 8,300, about 8,400 patients in intensive care, which is more than 140% of the initial capacity”, he explained.
A tray that relaxes
“We are far from completely green, it is a high plateau that is consolidating”, warned Frédéric Valletoux, president of the French Hospital Federation. “In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Hauts-de-France, Ile-de-France, the level of care is still high”, he determined this Tuesday. In fact, in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, more than 7,000 people were hospitalized on Monday, the peak of 3,000 on April, and 860 people in intensive care on Sunday. In Hauts-de-France, hospitalizations for Covid rose to 3,200, from 2,600 in the first wave. In the territory of Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, the first blow was 1,900, and the bounce was 3,300. Not to mention Occitania, which went from 1,000 to 2,200.
Conversely, the French Isle is in a much better state than it was in the spring, and can receive patients from other regions after sending theirs elsewhere. From one wave to the next, there are half of the half-hospitalized patients in the region (up from 13,600 in April instead of 13,200). The same goes for recovery cases. In particular, in intensive care, the population of the French Hair seems to have reached a plateau, or even begun to fall from the November 12 peak (to 1,133 patients). Public Assistance-Hospitals in Paris are declining projections (940 and 1,075 cases in intensive care this Saturday)
Although the incidence in the village is declining, the decline in the hospital will be slow, however, warned FHF CEO Zaynab Riet. If Covid beds are available, overcrowded hospitals may keep new arrivals instead of arranging medical evacuations. And operations that have been suspended in recent weeks have been suspended again. Hospital staff don’t go to rest much at Christmas.