Khashoggi Murder: Is Mohamed Saudi Crown Prince Finish?

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Reuters

"He's the toast." "Toxic". "He's my hero." "We love him." Opinions are clearly divided into the person called MBS – Saudi Arabia controversial Mohammed bin Salman Crown Prince.

Since the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Saudi Consulate on October 2, 2008, the MBS brand has become a positive poison in the West.

From the official denial of Saudi that he himself was involved in the murder – Diwan al-Maliki met with deep skepticism in the interior of the royal court, opened from inside.

• Who is the Mohammed Saudi crown?

In a part of the world where almost nothing is done from the top, the current version of Saudi, that is a somewhat haunting operation, seems unbelievable.

A silent argument in the bay is that, while the MBS "did something" about Khashoggi's outspoken criticism, he never penalized the murder and that the person who led his office was Sa'd-ud-al-Qahtani's superior to commands, all those who took part were all from the Crown Prince.

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Reuters

The problem is that, apart from Saudi Arabia, no one believes in the Saudi narrative.

For days, the Saudi media outragedly denied the suggestion that Khashoggi had come to an end within the consulate and claimed to have been in the streets of Istanbul.

They said they died in "fist fight".

The latest version of the Saudi prosecutor was that his murder was actually preceded.

The treatment of the aftermath of the murder in Saudi is considered in every detail as the operation itself.

It can only be assumed that if he listened to the good advice of MBS well-paid media advisers, he did not take it.

Waterfront moment

All of these MBSs are left in the dock of the global public, and someone who does not want to associate with most Western governments and multinationals.

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In Saudi Arabia, which was only officially merged in 1932, it is a watershed moment.

Do high-ranking princes get astonished at this mighty figure by removing just the power to ease the American Congress and other Western bodies, some of whom are now welcoming weapons?

Do they "completely break it down" and give him some secret promotion to a meaningless sinecure?

Or are they trying to take the storm as they tried unsuccessfully after this story broke a month ago?

In fact, very serious discussions are taking place now behind the closed door of the Saudi king circles.

The weight of the crisis facing the prevailing al-Saud family is measured by the sudden returnees of King 82 of Salman's last surviving brother, Prince Ahmed bin Abdelaziz, in Riyadh on Tuesday.

He came from London to the morgues to welcome the incense-smelling gifts and make them embrace the other princes, including the MBS.

The silent and thoughtful Princess Ahmed was a kind of cult hero who opposed the MBS after talking about the war in Yemen and was accountable to the chronicler and his father.

They said he was afraid to return to Riyadh because of the fear of homicide – but he has now returned and helps the wagon in the family circle to lead.

There is no obvious challenge

What are the factors that are now being considered when the future of MBS?

First of all, there are no obvious challengers, long ago saw this.

At the age of 33, his rise to power was meteoric. Since becoming crown prince in June last year, older, wiser but deeper prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the MBS successfully gathered the powers.

He directs the Interior Ministry (which includes the fearsome Mabahith secret police), the National Guard (a huge and faithful Praetorian guard that protects the ruling family and its interests) and, as Defense Minister, he directs the armed forces.

He runs the Royal Court, economic policy, and although the patient's child is king, the MBS, who really runs the country.

Even before the Khashoggi crisis broke out in October, MBS policies were increasingly controversial, and several senior Saudis questioned whether they began to assume greater responsibility than a tool.

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Fully confident and blessed with his father's green light, the MBS has pulled out Saudi Arabia and his allies in a costly and seemingly unsustainable war in Yemen in 2015.

Last year, dozens of princes, businessmen, and senior staff locked up at Riyadh's Ritz Carlton Hotel until they agreed to repay huge sums allegedly corrupted.

This has gone a long way against the Saudi youth, despite the fact that MBS has recently issued a £ 450m (£ 347m) super ship.

Then there is neighboring Qatar, a great Western ally.

Last week in Manama, US Defense Secretary James Mattis recalled the vital coalition air base that provides 17 countries reminding us that the United States wants to see this spat end.

This year, he met a stranger with Canada for the only tweet of the Foreign Minister calling for human rights to be respected in Saudi Arabia and for arresting peaceful reformers.

For a while, he was aware that the MBS was not democratic – one of the people who had been associated with it was described as "reckless, unbalanced gangster" – but so far, most Saudis are prepared to ignore exaggerations.

Hi-tech future hopes

For millions of young Saudis, MBS continues to hope in the future: a bold, charismatic leader and visionary reformer who has shaken the powers of the conservative priesthood as women have the right to lead and re-enter the fun of the sterile public life of the kingdom.

The plans for the reform of the oil-based economy, embodied in Vision 2030, have brought an ambitious look to Saudis with a hi-tech future that has created a sensible workplace for everyone.

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For the diplomatic and policy makers in Washington, London and Paris – or at least limited – the MBS seems obvious.

But for the conservative, risk-averse ruling family in Saudi Arabia, this is a decision that you should not do more.

So you finished it? It is hard to say at this stage.

Keep in mind that by mid-2011, just a few months before the Arab spring uprising, almost everyone assumed that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will be thrown at Christmas.

Seven years still have power.