Wednesday , December 8 2021

“Hospitals fall within two weeks”


Covid, medical alarm:

“Those are the numbers. There is a slowdown in hospitalizations, but it does not prevent the health care system from getting out of control. Within two weeks, with this growth rate, there will be considerable problems in hospitals in many regions. Today, it is not possible to help patients who need other pathologies properly, as care is fully concentrated in Covid, ”says Dr. Filippo Anelli, president of the National Federation of Medical Prescriptions (Fnomceo). Everywhere there are reports of besieged hospitals, despite the activation of new beds.

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In Rome, ambulances remain blocked for a long time in the face of an emergency, with patients on board, waiting for the seat to be left; In Lombardy it is even worse, Antonio Pesenti, director of the Uoc Department of Anesthesia-Intensive Care at the Milan Polyclinic and coordinator of intensive care at the Lombardy Regional Crisis Unit: “We no longer have vacancies for Covid patients. remain, but they will probably also be occupied if they are no longer there.We put the patients in the recovery rooms of the operating rooms until someone puts more seats.Here is the situation in real time and so it has been these days.Civil Defense, Red Cross and Army hospitals in many cities they form: Calabria, Piedmont, Umbria, Abruzzo, Valle d’Aosta.

What do the numbers say? While it is true that the growth of new positive cases has slowed, it is clear that we still have an average of about 30,000 a day. 5% of them end up in hospital. Even if discharged, an average of another 800 beds (including intensive care) are occupied daily in hospitals due to Covid. No health care system can keep up. Aren’t new hospitalizations declining? Yes, they have decreased, but not enough. Let’s look at the numbers in more detail, keeping the two firmly in the background: there are currently 3,492 patients in Covid-19 in intensive care and 32,536 in the medical field. Last week, the average daily increase was 91.8 places in intensive care and 700 in the medical departments. Last week, the figures were higher, with an average of 118 new jobs per day in the ICU and 1,113 in the medical departments.

So it is true that there is a slowdown, but it is not sustainable enough to ensure the system. Rather. Other numbers. Let’s do the screening for the next 14 days, so until the end of the month. If the increase in hospital beds occupied by Covid-19 patients remains constant, we will find 4,780 beds occupied by Covid-19 patients in intensive care, so that April 3 was about 20% more than the historic peak in April 3. It will be said: since then the squares have increased. True.

Commissioner Domenico Arcuri said: “We have 10,000 seats, we have doubled them and we will reach 11,300 next month, compared to 3,400 hospitalized in intensive care.” It should be remembered that Covid patients do not end up in intensive care. And Carlo Palermo, secretary of the medical union Anaao Assomed, says: “About 60% of these beds are taken by patients with very serious illnesses such as stroke, heart attack, polytrauma, shock, sepsis and multi-organ failure. Placed in other care settings. “When more than 11,000 intensive care places are indicated, it should be noted that there are only approximately 3,500 on paper, which can be activated under severe conditions and not immediately. In other words, medical and nursing staff would not be available in any case.”

Not better on the other front: hospitalizations in the medical field (more serious patients but in any case have to be in isolation conditions): we have passed the peak of April 4 (29,010), but even if there is no decisive slowdown hospitalizations, in two weeks we will have 42,336 Covid patients in Italy in hospitals, about 45 percent more than the darkest days of the first wave. Finally, there is another element that should not be underestimated: doctors and nurses have begun to fail because they have become very infected or because they have close relationships with infected people (and therefore need to be isolated). Since September 1, the number of positive doctors and nurses has increased by 23,000. There are more and more patients in the wards, fewer and fewer operators.

Last updated: 00:48


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