Thursday , January 21 2021

We still did well – Personal attitudes



We still did well 1Epidemiologist Zoran Radovanovic

This category includes bacteriophages (literally: bacterial eaters) that destroy the causes of cholera, dysentery, typhoid fever, and many other diseases.

In numbers, these types of viruses are almost negligible only in the human body (almost polio, smallpox, smallpox and smallpox, etc.) that are capable of parasitizing.

There are viruses that can infect animals (rabies, Ebola, AIDS, various hemorrhagic fevers) or animal viruses that can infect humans.

About 15 thousand of them have been isolated so far, but it is estimated that their actual number is a hundred times greater.

In the last three decades, dozens of new viral infections have been reported among humans.

It is certain that their number will increase in the near future.

In addition, some locally limited diseases can reach a global proportion.

It is important for humanity to anticipate the pandemic potential of their causes in order to better prepare for the inevitable encounter.

Bird flu is an example of the importance of established measures. New strains of this virus have appeared several times in the recent past.

Some caused significant human deaths (H1N5 in 53 percent, H7N9 in 38 percent), and others were interrupted when they were transferred to natural hosts, wild pond birds, or domestic birds of prey.

The danger was literally wiped out by the massive slaughter of millions of birds.

Modern technologies also allow the laboratory to avoid the serious consequences of alleged threats.

Based on the chemical structure of the expected causative agent, for example, one can think of weaknesses in which drugs will break critical molecular bonds.

The basis of the forecast was, on the same principle and despite the controversial effect, to provide remolesivir medicine to patients with 19 kovid, originally prepared for Ebola and hepatitis C.

Much can be done in vaccine preparations.

Its production would be irrational when there is no disease or its incidence is low, but the structural characteristics of the surrounding virus can be selected and the ability to protect antibodies in animals can be tested.

These are all the reasons why the World Health Organization hired world-renowned experts in 2018 to complete the list of probabilities of future viral attackers of the human race.

This group defined the following priority criteria for risk assessment: a) interpersonal transmission, b) severity of disease or mortality, c) sharing living space with animal infection sources, d) public health context in the area where the disease is maintained (endemic), e) potential impact on society , f) the evolutionary potential of the virus, and d) other factors (geographical spread of the virus, common epidemiological and genotypic characteristics of the virus and humans, lack of high collective immunity, high risk of occupational exposure or association with a biological warfare program, etc.).

From the original 20, the list was reduced to eight diseases, which is a group of diseases. They are all caused by viruses. We will list the first seven according to the probability of death (mortality rate) as a percentage indicated in parentheses:

1) Ebola (about 50, 25-90) and Marburg viral disease (22-90),

2) Nipah (40-75) and henipavirus diseases (50),

3) Middle East Respiratory Syndrome or MERS (37) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome or SARS (10),

4) Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (10-30, 2-40 wider);

5) Mild fever (about 1 in 15+ clinically severe cases),

6) Zika (less than 1, dangerous for the fetus during pregnancy), and

7) Rift Valley Fever (less than 1).

The secular astonishment was caused by the decision to mark the eighth disease with the letter X, but the possibility of a new infection that was previously unknown had to be allowed, with a name that is not quite understandable.

And that’s what happened – kovid 19. appeared. People who are prone to subsequent intelligence will say that SARS and MERS have “logically” predicted a third coronary virus that is life-threatening.

With the same number of arguments, however, many other viruses could be betting.

Let’s make a half-joke comparison: in Terazije, next to the Abbot’s Palace, when the third row of the store was renovated, behind the shops called “Ateks” and “Beteks”, the citizens thought they would call it “Ceteks” (a, be, ce), but the shoe shop one appeared.

Who can bet now that SARS-CoV-2 will be SARS-CoV-3 first and not another virus?

In any case, the X disease that hit the world in 2020 is 19.

Knowledge of the mortality caused by this infection still varies considerably, depending on the definitions of the disease or infection used, the diligence of data collection, the conditions of care and treatment, and many other reasons, such as our attitude towards truth.

In most countries, the ratio of deaths and registered patients is 0.5–3.5 percent, and the ratio of deaths and infections (so, among other things, asymptomatic symptoms, simple illnesses, and missed detection) is ten times lower.

When we draw the line we need to point out how it could have been worse.

Ebola or Nipah’s viral diseases had no effect on us, and Kovid 19 is the next exercise for the whole world to show how to prepare for the next pandemic.

The author is an epidemiologist, a tenured university professor and a member of the Board of the United Medical Association against Covid.

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