Sunday , January 17 2021

From January 14 to January 18, the market review: ruble will be under pressure



The results of the previous week From 2406.50 pesetas to 2444.45 pesetas and 1118.05 pesetas from 1118.05 pesetas. The number of USD-USD was 1,1398 and 1,1464 dollars. USD-RUB fell from 67.72 to 66.88 and went from EUR 77.30 to 76.70 euros. It rose from $ 57.06 to $ 60.48. American broad market indexes 2531.94 p. Tik 2596.26.

After the "bearish" Christmas market, the markets relaxed a bit. China and the United States found the power to negotiate trade issues, even without the help of harmful corporations. Fed indicates that the increase in speed is not the principle and can stop. The attack by Democrat Donald Trump has fought for nearly two years, which have stopped the attacks in Russia. In addition, consistent trump card campaigns make Trump the main candidate in the next US presidential election. The home market is also not bad. The oil is in the market and more than $ 60 in Brent's chest is marketed. However, the corporate reports come in the winter periods and will be the results of recent years. As a result, the financial results increase according to the importance of increasing it. However, the macroeconomic statistics are very important for predicting the actions of central banks.

Japan will rest on Monday on the day of majority. It is assumed that data on China's balance of trade will be published. Exports only accounted for 3% in December, 5.4% in November and imports in 5% and in November at 3.%. The balance of trade could have an amount of 51.53 million dollars in November compared to $ 44.71 million. Germany will update wholesale price statistics. The Eurozone will be industrial production statistics. A 1.5% fall in November is expected in the month of November and is 2.3% annually. In US foreign auctions, the Fed president expects the next speech by J. Powell.

Japan will start on Tuesday to calculate machine-building orders beforehand. France in that day IV It will publish the first Quarterly GDP GDP, which may be unexpected in relation to December December. The German GDP may have slow growth in Europe as a whole. In the United Kingdom, a vote on the agreement for the withdrawal from the European Union. Therefore, sterling will be more volatile. In the U.S., there may be data on the trade balance. The negative balance is $ 54.5 million, $ 55.5 in November. Producer prices dropped 2.5% in the US in December, but Core PPI growth dropped from 2.9% to 2.9% in November. The manufacturing index for the New York Fed (Empire State Index) can accelerate growth from 11.25 pesetas to 10.9. In December In the afternoon, Kansas's FRB Head will also talk about Esther George.

On Wednesday night, we report a report on the US APO overnight crude oil and oil reserves. Japan will update data on engineering orders in November. In China, housing prices will be available. There are data on inflation in the United Kingdom. Consumer price growth dropped 2.2% in December, up 2.3% compared to November. In the US, retail sales statistics programming. It is expected that in December it would have increased by 0.2%, but the expectations may be lower, if we recall successful online shopping reports. In the afternoon, a report on the NABB housing market, sales from the US Department of Energy, and then the "beige book" of the Fed.

On Thursday night, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, N. Kashka, will speak. There are data on Australian property and mortgages sales. However, today, the most important is the first estimate of the Chinese GDP in the fourth quarter. The Middle Kingdom economy will reduce its inter-annual growth rate from 6.4% to 6.5% in the previous quarter. In the euro area, the inflation will depend on December, which is 1.6%. In the United States, a report on construction and permits for December is planned. In addition, traditional data on unemployment benefits and traditional data from the Philadelphian Federal Reserve's January manufacturing index will be traded, which is 10.0 pesetas. 9.1 days. In December Next, housing sales and gas reserves report sales.

Japan's inflation statistics will start on Friday, but it probably will not be nice for the Bank of Japan, because a slowdown in growth is expected. In addition, Japan's Japanese production in November. In the afternoon there will be an IEA forecast in the oil market. Retail sales statistics in the United Kingdom will appear. In the United States, statistics on Fed industrial production will be published, which increased by 0.2% in December. The University of Michigan consumer confidence rates will show up in the afternoon. And finally, a report by Baker Hughes will be held on active platforms. In Russia, a monthly and commercial GDP balance is published this day. NLMK IV. The quarterly results and the 2018 results will be published.

Asian markets filled a new week in red. China's Reports Exports of 2018 slowed to 7.1%, up 7.7% to 2017. Imports grew 12.9%, 15.9% up on the previous year. It is worth noting that the United States surplus stock amounted to $ 323,300 million. If we take the data in December, then the image is quite dark. In December, exports fell by 4.4% and were 7.6% annual imports. Meanwhile, the positive balance was 57.06 million dollars. Thus, PRC statistics were negative for developed and developing markets. 9:00 Moscow time – 26243.96 points (-1.59%), – 2535.95 points (-0.70%).

Oil was also under pressure from the PRC statistics, although imports in China were in second place in December. According to Customs, daily deliveries were 10.31 million barrels, which is a bit lower than the footprint of November. In the whole of 2018, oil imports accounted for 10.1% of the total of 9,24 million barrels per day. Natural gas imports increased their growth by 31.9% in 2018 and 90.39 million tonnes. However, this is not enough for markets, as a result of the war of commerce, the slowdown of the economy can produce less optimism next year. In the meantime, at the end of 2018 the decline in oil prices is gradually reflecting on American oil companies. According to Baker Hughes, the week ending 11th of January, the number of active US petrol stations fell by 4 units to 873 units. And a bit of gold. Metals are still very good for market instability to recover $ 1,300 per troy ounce in negotiation. SPDR Gold Trust reserves rose slightly in the last week, 797.71 tons. 9:00 Moscow time Brent – $ 59.8 (1.12%), – $ 50.98 (-1.18%), – $ 1292.1 (+ 0.20%), – $ 5805.89 ( -1, 07%), nickel – $ 11,395 (-0.57%).

It grew 0.12% to 95.63 p.m. 9:00 p.m. Moscow time EUR-USD – $ 1,148 (0.12%), GBP-USD – $ 1,285 (0.14%), USD-JPY – 108.11 (-0.38%).

The domestic market continues to be a positive dynamic, but at the beginning of the year, growth was largely due to foreign markets and oil recovery. The new statistics from China can also affect Russian assets. In the United States, many attempts to denounce Moscow's thunderclap work continue. Therefore, combinations of economic and political factors can reduce the Russian index at the beginning of the week. Census must also be tested to recover the currency purchases made in the free market place within the budget. In the long term, the development of reserves is positive, but in the short term it generates an excessive demand for currency. That is why the ruble will be under pressure at the beginning of the week.


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