Friday , January 22 2021

Is the Year of the Swine Yuan in China Yuan, is it going to end the seasonal strength and start marketing the war?



From January, does the year go by? If this happens, China's Yuan strength in the first weeks of this year should have a high performance against the US dollar in 2019, in general. Yuan, as the pace of this rise in Yuan, investors could divert themselves from the current level. It can be used for this irresponsible perspective.

In fact, yuan's early January drivers may have a short period of time.

In "Commerce" the investor will already be aware of the management of his exposure. It is never wrong to put part or partial profit into a position. In the case of investors who have not lost the initial movement, those who feel like 2019 will see the smallest US-Dollar-Chinese-Yuan exchange rate. It is recommended to reflect a moment.

Regarding the potential of Yuan's potential estimation, the market may have a large number of reports on the expected challenges in the economy of China in the second half of 2018, probably psychologically misunderstood and so poorly positioned. The Renminbi force appeared just as 2019.

The initial estimate of the first yuan on the first day of January was arguable because the snowballs had an impact on investors, fearing behind them, trying to enter the renminbi.

Indeed, markets may underline China's forecasts compared to other major economies. In fact, the analyst continues to persuade Beijing to set a low target of 6.55 billion euros for economic growth of 6 million euros, in more than Eurozone, the German economy decreased by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2018.

The German minister, Peter Altmaier, also believes that last week it was necessary that "Germany is not at the start of the recession."

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Meanwhile, in addition to the economic sugar that surpasses the United States, Washington's political extermination and the Trump administration 2018 cuts, markets do not turn out so horrific that maintaining green spaces is the best foreign exchange trade.

According to the evolution of the investor's thinking, it shows that the increase in the Federal Reserve rate has increased. The US dollar's force started fourfold until 2018, Fed Jerome Powell said on January 10, "especially in low inflation and under control, we must be patient and patiently".

Based on the comparison, and with all the exchanges, based on the mutual merits of different currencies, Yuan's arguments start, above all, of a dollar.

According to China, the People's Republic of China will argue that Yuan will not escape. Beijing has well calculated the level of appreciation of Renminbi that it helps traders in trading with delicate Washington. Trump administration has been a voice about Chinese weakness.

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But trading negotiations are not double swords. The success of the successful outcome of trading market expectations has risen and, undoubtedly, it has prompted Yuan's demand, due to the deterioration in the relations between China and the US trade, the weakness of Renminbi was introduced.

However, it is a short time for commercial discussions. Following a period of "truce" 90 days after China's Xi Jinping president, he was recruited in the US of Buenos Aires on December 1,

Therefore, in the short term, in the short term, the current risk of negotiable trading negotiators today, would undermine real risk, unless determined.

Moreover, the rhythm of the 2019 yuan force is based on speculative exclusion, but seasonal factors. The second effect may soon disappear.

China's December trade is bad, to make it worse this year

As from the 5th of January of the year of the pig and considering the duration of holidays in China, the Chinese exporters would of course be required to convert foreign investment into a yuan for pre-loading their coverage activities. At the end of the spring festival, these exporters can return to normal rhythms of operation.

Yuan appreciates favorable arguments against the US $ 2019 and, at the beginning of January, has already seen Renminbi's recovery material rise. But the rise may be that a combination of speculation and poor season can survive.

At current levels, yuan bulls must be careful.

Neal Kimberley is a commentary on macroeconomics and financial markets


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