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The Bank warns that there will be no agreement that the slow pound and the economy will shrink



Governor of the Bank of England Mark CarneyImage copyright
AFP

Image caption

Mark Carney has previously said the stress testing bank "Brexit Disorder"

A court owes Brexit out to pound the crisis and warns of a worse recession than the economic downturn, the Bank of England warned.

The UK economy could reduce it by 8% immediately after the transitional period immediately afterwards, and houses could fall nearly third.

The Bank of England warned that a pound could fall for a quarter.

Bank analysis The Treasury said the UK would be worse for any Breite in any type.

The scenario of this bank will not happen to what is expected, but in the worst-case scenario called "Breit disorder".

The scenario is the end of the five-year term that leaves the UK's UK.

But at the end of 2023, economic growth will be regained.

  • What did the Bank of England learn?
  • Brexit gets worse in the UK, the government warns

What is & # 39; Brexit confusing & # 39;?

The Bank of England has made some assumptions, not predicts, about Brexit's confusion.

  • The United Kingdom will return to the World Trade Organization rules
  • There are no new commercial businesses for the year 2022
  • It loses access to existing commercial agreements between the UK and third countries of the United Kingdom
  • Due to customs clearance, serious damage to borders
  • Migrations have fallen from 150,000 to 100%

The Bank of England does not give the probability of this event.

What happens in this state of confusion?

The scenario drawn by the Bank of England shows that the GDP will decrease by 8% in 2019 against its forecasts.

Growth would be recovered rapidly and the economy would be reopened by the end of 2023 but lower than it was before.

Unemployment would rise to 7.5%, price growth 30% and trade prices fell by 48%.

The interest rates would reach 4%.

Did the Bank of England consider other scenarios?

The bank examined three other scenarios.

He also investigated "disruptive" in Brexit, where he had access to some of the UK trade agreements.

Negotiating arrangements in addition to what happened to the "close" relationship in the United Kingdom or what describes the "less closed" relationship, he also looked at it.

There is a close relationship between the customs checks, the regulatory barriers and the partial agreement agreed by the financial services.

The nearest state is established by customs clearance and other regulatory checks after 2021.

What happens to these scenarios?

If the breach is inadequate, the GDP decreased by 3% over the course of 2022, the price of prices fell by 14% and unemployment reached 5.75%.

If a closed negotiation has been agreed, the economy may have a 1% drop in the EU than in the European Union, but 1.5% more than the newest estimate of the bank.

If there is less, the economic growth may be lower than 3.75% in the UK and in the UK, with 0.75% in the final inflation report.

These figures cover the 2023 period.

Why is the Bank publishing these figures?

Brexit's inadequate and mixed scenarios are included in the mid-term review of the financial stability.

Closed and lower scenarios help the Parliament's Treasury Committee, with Brexit's influence on the bank's ability to maintain financial stability and have the capacity to inflate 2%.


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