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A Failed Soviet Venus Probe Might Just Crash Back to Earth This Year, So Heads Up



One of the lesser-known achievements of the Cold War-era Space Race is the Soviet successes in landing probes on the incredibly harsh and unforgiving surface of Venus, which has temperatures that can reach a hellish 870 degrees Fahrenheit (465 degrees Celsius) and atmospheric pressures 90 times that of Earth. Despite these infernal conditions, the Soviets managed to land 14 operational sundries (the United States just managed one) and landers to the surface. Cosmos 482, however, was not one of these, because a rocket malfunction trapped it in Earth's orbit. But it may be coming home soon.

Cosmos 482 was launched on March 31, 1972, just a few days after its sister probe, which became Venera 8, was launched to Venus. Soviet probes would usually have a generic Cosmos name at launch and only receive their official mission name when successfully out of Earth orbit. Cosmos 482 would have been Venera 9 if it had made it to Venus, but, of course, it did not.

What happened was the "escape stage Block L" engine-the rocket stage designed to propel the test out of Earth orbit and on to Venus-cut off prematurely at 125 seconds due to an equipment failure, which effectively stranded the probe into a highly elliptical Orbit around Earth, with a maximum distance of around 6,093 miles and a minimum of around 126 miles.

Over the years that orbit has decayed, and now it seems to range from 1,700 miles to 125 miles. It also seems that at some point early on, an explosion took place, which separated the spacecraft into at least two parts, one of which re-entered the atmosphere and one that's still in orbit.

While it's not exactly certain what part of the spacecraft is left in orbit, independent observers have noted what appears to be a sort of oblong shape, although it's not really clear what is actually up there.

The landing module of the Venera probes, seemingly photographed on the disk

Sources do seem to think that part of what is still in orbit includes the lander itself, which is what makes this particular bit of space junk so interesting.

That decent craft was designed to withstand re-entry into Venus' atmosphere; Even after spending almost half a century in space, such a lander should be more than capable of withstanding a Earth re-entry, which means a 1,091 pound chunk of vintage space hardware will most likely survive re-entry and slam into the Earth.

I suppose there's a chance its parachutes are still working, but I would not really count on it.

No one is really sure exactly where or when the remains of Cosmos 482 will land, but everyone seems to agree that it will be sooner than original estimates of somewhere between 2023 and 2025.

Images of the Venus surface from Venera 9

One good thing about all this is that it reminds us about some really tough and interesting hardware and exploration from the Space Race; a landing on Venus with an operating spacecraft remains impressive to this day.

I guess the downside is that one of these impressive spacescraft could crash into your garage. It's unlikely, but maybe just keep an eye out, all the same.


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