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Inflation does not change, the rate rises further and the market is drying up



Luis Varela

While unnecessary prices were downgraded, the Government was upset at the height of the Government's decision to reduce the price of the dollar by Casa Rosada to the Central Bank at any cost, since inflation data is undoubtedly disturbing. Full fluctuations in February tend to increase the growth price growth.

Immediately, the holder of the BCRA Guido Sandleris followed the letter of instructions: the price is the only value that can make the dollar jump the peace of mind. For this reason, Reconquista 266 made another step by step to 50% of the bank's annual Leliq (Central Bank Banks).

Last week, the Central Bank's Leliq rate stood at 43,937 and 49,521, but yesterday the rebound was slightly higher, 49.829%. And, immediately, banks raise the price paid by fixed terms: the rate of these instruments rose from 34% to 36% every year from small silver cylinders and from 36% to 38%.

It is noteworthy that after the prices recorded by experts in January, the index registered at 2.9% and 4 February, in the first two months of the year, demand increased by 7%. This, according to analysts, will put an inflation rate of over 30% annually.

And according to the nonsense of the case, the 50% rate of Leliq would have a positive rate of 20 points above the estimated inflation rate of the banks.

Of course, all domestic increases in these prices exceed all the expected exchange rates. According to the forecast for this year, exchanges would be a 2% increase in weight and ceiling values, at least until the end of March.

But if home prices continue to rise much further than in the band, in Argentina this year it would be a new lag in the exchange rate, once the export recuperation has been declining and imports will increase again.

For the time being, this rate has increased rapidly in the local market, the dollar is completely wasted, and the amount of bargained Argentine bargains is diminished, as the price loss continues, for two weeks.

While Goldman Sachs cut forecasts for total growth in 2019, and the dollar had a mixed day abroad (against Yen and Swiss Francoism, but yuan, euro, authentic, kilogram and Chilean), the local card hit the local market.

The official dollar retailer dropped 21 cents to $ 40 pesos, blue changed $ 38.75, and the wholesale dollar dropped 17 cents to $ 39.05 to 51 cents. Meanwhile, measured in terms of weight, it fell to 5 cents a day, it made 5 cents a pound and the euro fell 8 cents to 44.33 dollars.

The rates applied by the Macro Government in the marketplace and these dollars intervene in the prevention of inflation in the market, the bad news about the real economy activity. Yesterday, data that were known in 30 sectors, but to mention a few, three can be emphasized:

  1. In CABA real estate, the number of businesses fell by 54.9% and prices were 8.5% compared to the previous January values.
  2. In supermarkets, sales fell by 8.7% and retail stores accounted for 13.3%.
  3. Despite the downturn in consumption, home appliance prices rose 32% in January.

This situation slowed the volume negotiated with Argentine securities. Yesterday, with a few businesses, the stock of bonds and stock continued to show their arrows.

85% of the operations of the bonds were divided into five units: AY24 63%, AO20% 13, TC20% 6, PBA25% 2 and DICA 2%, and local averages fell by 0.7%. Finally, the jump can be seen for pul26 bonuses and increased by 2% and 4.6% for bonds A2E8, PARP, AC17C, AA46D, PR13 and JUS2D. Bottom BDC20, PARAD, PARA, BDC24, A2E7, PUM21, AY24, AA25 and TVPE at between 1% and 3.5%.

Except, on the other hand, US, European and Asian markets continued to rise in prices, but increasingly less. New York Stock Exchange indexes increased by 0.1% and 0.4%, with the increases of General Electric and Alibaba and those with Barrick Gold and Petroleo Brasileiro. While the stock market remains in the Latin American markets, they fell 0.7% in San Pablo and 0.2% in Mexico.

With a rather rough wheel, the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange lost 0.9% yesterday and traded $ 531 million. 80% of the shareholding operations were marketed by eleven merchants: G.F. It took 17% of the Galician business, Supervielle 16% and Petrobras Brasil 12%.

The 15% jump in the extreme increased to Petrolera del Conosur and increased Caputo, Grimoldi, Costanera, Colorín, TGS and Longvie between 2% and 2%. Introductory decreases of 7% and decreases between 2% and 3% for Agrometal, Telecom, Supervielle, YPF, Gas Natural, Quickfood, Macro, Richmond and Rigolleau. Among the ADRs traded in New York, they rose from 1% to 3% with Bunge, Irsa P, TGS and Ternium; and has dropped from 1% to 3% to Macro, Irsa I, Cresud, YPF, Pampa E and Telecom.

In the end, there were significant variations in freight. Trump tweet against OPEC had a 3.3% drop in oil, which dropped to US $ 55.38 per barrel. Precious metals were weak, 0.1% gold and silver ounces 0.3%. Metal bases had a mixed behavior: copper rose by 0.2%, nickel fell by 0.2% and aluminum by 0.5%. There was a drop of 4.2% in Chicago salts, a fall of 1.1% and a 0.1% drop in soy. In Rosario, wheat fell by 2.8%, 2.2% corn and 1.3% lost soybeans. And the bitcoins gave 3%, with the rest of the cryptoconuclearization.


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