If something apocalyptic happened, if a runner calculated the probabilities of eliminating the human race, the pandemic could be more than a nuclear attack, a robot elevator or an asteroid. Epidemiologists and health professionals around the world agree: despite the worst possible government and agency efforts, the world is not the world's leading contagious disease. In February of 2017, Bill Gates warned that, if there is no sharp action, the airborne and fast-moving pathogen "killed more than 30 million people per year."
Among all the new threats to the disease, the effect of the flu is the worst, especially due to the fluidity of the spreading and dying. According to recent investigations, for any reason, the Spanish flu of 1918 killed 50 to 100 million people and the worst incident in human history was the origin of birds. Currently, new fluctuations in bird flu death rates have been unprecedented, the H5N1 tension in Hong Kong appeared in 1997, and is more commonplace than ever.
With regard to these new threats, H7N9 is a Chinese birth control that has already been detected by the control and prevention centers (CDC) that have already been detected by the pandemic deadliest in cases where mute and airway can be transmitted. The virus was first detected in a human victim in 2013. The figures published in the last month indicate that the occurrence of H7N9 in October 2016 killed more Chinese people than four birds before the bird flu. There was a variant that suffered less vaccines.
It is clear who the main suspect is, there is a problem facing H7N9 worldwide. Dr. Keiji Fukuda, former MDC epidemiologist, says that humanity has had a "rape" on a pandemic in recent years. Through a combination of training, fast action and good luck, no SARS in 2002, no swine flu in 2009, or Ebola in 2014 was a complete pandemic. We have a few reasons in the midst of today's deadly appearances as to how the world could be and how to prepare for the worst society in our society.
Irwin Redlener is Director of the National Disaster Preparedness Center at Columbia University. He and his team have been analyzing catastrophes due to climate change, terrorism or poultry in the last 14 years. Using data and computer models, they have analyzed scenarios that have created a serious and virulent tension of bird flu and the results of these prophetic models are fictional zombies.
In February of 2017, Bill Gates I warned him Therefore, if there is no sharp action, air carriers and fast-moving pathogens can "kill more than 30 million people in less than a year"
Let's say, the virus is a variant of the H7N9 that can be detected in a bird disease of birds of the first time in South China's poultry market, which is often applied and regulated by Hong Kong markets. One week later, three more cases were detected and the patient died at the hospital as a result of a lung infection.
The laboratory led by Atlántico CDC is the first to study the blood sample extracted from the victim. The CDC's virologists have confirmed that they have detected a new flu vaccine. The Chinese government has ordered the murder of thousands of provinces that have been found in the closure of poultry markets and the management of budding experience.
However, within a few days, hospitals continue to receive large flows of new cases: it is clear that effective rules of the country are not sacrifice and live animals. It seems that this new virus can be spread among the people through the air that breathes.
A few days later, new cases of illness have been reported in Chinese countries, but it is not clear at this time that the virus spreads through borders or migrates through the winter.
Almost immediately, Redlener plans to stop international efforts to avoid the ongoing transmission of international airports. Air travel, the unknown geographic regions of different levels of vulnerability to illnesses must be in a closed space for a long period of time, today is the fastest way to travel.
As in the case of trenches and cancers of the outbreak of the 1918 Spanish flu, the aircraft acts as a virus pipeline and infects passengers, when dissolved and dispersed, effectively distributing the virus. As Ed Yong said recently AtlanticAs for the spread of diseases, "we cross the sky through many birds, we turn small fires into a large global fire".
The airport shutdown is too late to stop the spread of the pandemic. In today's world of connectedness, the disease will be moved from one rural village to another in any 36-hour city, in order for any government to establish a flight ban policy. The first cases are rarely published in Europe and the US. In the first weeks, there is a lack of information, as in the case of Ebola 2014, when fake viruses are more widely spread. In cable news, experts point out that the occurrence is the result of Irish scientific research in China. Others suggest that it is part of terrorism.
There are a few reasons for a point of reference, how could a world a contemporary occurrence be deadly and how we could prepare the worst society in our society
The primary schools are closed. "One of the most important things that can be done in an emerging pandemic is to reduce the infection among children," says Redlener. However, the model of action reveals that the same amount of problem that generates this remedy is resolved. "Who cares for children at home?" Redlener asks. "What happens to parents to be infected? And what happens to the economy that parents would no longer work? How does people buy food when they are not rented?"
The supply chains begin to collapse, as the first economic and local effects of the pandemic appear. "Who supplies food and medical supplies daily and what is needed for all people who are infected?" Redlener asks "Is it possible for the truck to move between states, if the risk of illness widens?"
In a few weeks, supermarket shelves are empty. At the gas stations the queues are stretched along the roads, at least in a few days after the petrol station.
The fragility of the highly refined mechanism that guarantees the convenience and comfort of contemporary life in the richest and most up-to-date world. The crisis of the global crisis "is a list of all things, nobody wants to do a single task in the list of things that many people do," said Bill Steiger, head of the World Health Affairs Office. The administration of George W. Bush, Washington Post In April, while preparing a pandemic.
The CDC publishes daily recommendations (stay in the house, if you do not screw your mouth), President Trump responds with a strange curious rhetoric. This time, however, involves a more rhetorical measure. Canada and the United Mexican borders have closed down, they have declared marital laws and US Americans have quarantined (and arrested if they have violated the crime). Judging using public sentiment about these conspiracies, the Trump trade war begins in China.
As long as the pandemic continues, we will start to see the nation's responsibility incapable. Hospitals, doctors and medications try out unprecedented methods. "The United States has had little improvement in the ability to treat medications as a pandemic," says Redlener. "We do not have enough antiviral agents, we do not have enough mechanical ventilation, it is very dangerous to know the care of people who need to reach a pandemic hospital and, therefore, patients are overwhelmed."
This is where the complexity of a pandemic situation is revealed: consider the ethical issues that arise in the center of disaster. What happens, for example, in hospital ventilation mechanic hospitals? Can a doctor tell a parent about the possibility of child survival as being less than a young adult, and that it will abolish breath? "We must manage large shortages that we find in the health system in the case of a pandemic," says Redlener.
Regardless of whether these hypothetical situations are credible or abusive, Redlener believes that any pandemic effects are not considered today by many disaster planners. They show how they can accelerate the worldwide virus, but they do not detail the implications of collapse of society in the midst of a deadly pandemic. All over the world, says Redlener, "is not ready".
Redlener and his colleagues will not reach these apocalyptic consequences. In 2011, the World Health Organization presented a global initiative called Pandemic Influenza Preparedness (PGP), a program designed to stop or delay the pandemic effect before starting to determine the type of global disaster.
As part of the PGP, a global network of anti-flu influenza anti-flu influenza 150 influencing the world examines blood samples from newly infected patients and monitors drug pharmaceuticals. to treat the symptoms of the disease. This study creates a vaccine against seasonal flu, and its new versions develops one year twice a year, and the governments of the World Health Organization provide advice on how to prepare a pandemic.
Many nations have developed their own specific plans. The United Kingdom, for example, has created an identifiable Strategy for controlling the Poultry Target in cases where an island pandemic may become an illness. However, the World Health Organization is working to better coordinate efforts and strategies among the nation's influenza influenza in 1918: one of the pandemic treating patients can not fight. They believe that the modern pandemic is nothing more than treating separately nations that are unrelated to the world.
"The pandemic is a global event," says Sylvie Briand, Director of the Department of Contamination Risk Management, as part of the new Annual Health Emergency Program of the World Health Organization. "It must be managed nationally and internationally, the disease has no limits". Pardis Sabeti, the most infectious infectious disease researcher at Harvard University, said the same thing Atlantic At the beginning of the year: "Viruses are threats of humanity worldwide, common problems are, in a way, the only threat they make".
Still, the type of threat that influences flu comes from different countries. "It's a problem until now that flu is seen as a disease of a rich and temperate country," says Briand. "It's not a case, flu is everywhere, but in many tropical countries, there is a high death rate due to respiratory illness, they do not know about the flu."
In 2014, the Obama administration committed a $ 1 million grant to the New World Health Security Program. This program prevents the spread of epidural mortality in order to strengthen the basic public health systems of developed countries in order to fight against epidemics. He has undergone epidemiological training for health professionals in Mali, for example, and has helped governments cope with an incentive for bird flu to develop emergency plans. More than 30 countries have been evaluated to determine the ability to detect and avoid brokers (results, or negative results, the public). Progress still requires "still fragile" and "continuous funding", including the CDC study.
Nowadays efforts to improve international cooperation are encouraging. However, we can not predict how nations would react with mutual help with the tumult of a hypothetical pandemic.
"When, for example, a large storm in the northern northern coast or the Gulf region that is similar to the Gulf Gulf, it usually comes from other disaster areas and cities," said Redlener. In other words, those who are not normally allowed are generally allowed. "But a pandemic threatens everyone, everywhere, Boston may not be able to pick up fans from New York, Washington or Chicago, because they need them as much as they need." They are limited resources, and at all levels, from the neighborhood to the city and the nation, the human instinct for self-care is activated inevitably.
"There's a lot of work to be done in a crisis," says Briand. "It is a tendency to accumulate vaccines for each country and to develop a single individual preparedness plan, but it is necessary to add a supranational layer of preparation that the first effect does not monopolize all resources, the global event: the richest country will get vaccines and the rest will not."
A problem with anyone involved in this difficult situation is difficult to tackle. Vaccination is far more effective in defending a pandemic. However, as Redlener says, capitalism wheels and wheels are placed against vaccine research, development, manufacturing and storage (some of them expire in 12 months). "In the private manufacturing, development and research system," he explained, "the pharmaceutical companies do not want to invest or want to invest large amounts of money and can not afford to return."
Meanwhile, Laboratories of the World Health Organization continue working to increase the speed they are working on, hoping to develop a new vaccine for at least six months to four months. The speed of transmission of the flu is crucial: 1918 the flu, especially in the 24-week dead, has killed more than 24 hours.
Today, according to the World Health Organization, flu flu has reached 500 million doses, but it is not effective against a new flu vaccine. The reservation, says Briand, will allow the world to face the first wave of a pandemic. But Redlener stands out and asserts that reservations will be sufficient. "We do not need a lot of vaccines to get all the pandemic pandemics of all types of influenza and the less pandemic pandemic."
"The problem is that, until now, the disease is seen as an illness in a rich and temperate country, it is not the case, flu is everywhere, but in many tropical countries, the death rate is high due to illness. Respiratory diseases, most of which do not know"
National and international policies play a vital role in creating new forms of cooperation that are necessary to face potential pandemics. However, as Breit and the rise of nationalist rhetoric in the world show, the bases of cooperation are based on unstable.
"Donald Trump has been very open about America Primero, that is, a retrospective and inadequate, with regard to almost all of the world's forecasts: economics, public health, climate change," says Redlener. In the first week of his office, Trump proposed power cuts to unexpected cuts to stop the birth stops.
During the Ebola 2014 hearing, Trump tweeted that American support staff did not return to North America ("FIND IT!" he wrote) to prevent the spread of the disease. In this way, he thinks Trump does not recognize US support from other countries with the help of other nations. "The fragmentation of our countries increases the threat created by a pandemic," says Redlener.
In the case of the World Health Organization, the need for continued international cooperation is crucial not just in the case of a pandemic but also for the drilling and construction of defense against this incident. "The work requires a constant effort," says Briand. "Mechanisms are powerful if you use them often, people change, guidelines vary, so you have to do simulation exercises continuously, plan up to date and unexpected confrontation."
Can we expect another bird flu to appear? All experts interviewed in these articles have said that it is not only an important pandemic, but it is dangerous.
Currently, there is a continuation of a number of bird virus in the World Health Organization, according to Briand, "a potential pandemic". Among these, H10N8 is an unknown disease of unknown origin four years ago, the first victim of humanity in China. Since then, CDC has controlled more than 300 outbreaks of 300 countries in the past year, and has made 37 dangerous pathogens.
It is clear that we do not prepare. How would it be You can not simulate the collapse of society. Health systems around the world have difficulties in meeting the needs of our populations, in the field of aging and growth, as well as those that arise after the pandemic catastrophe. In the meantime, xenophobia and nationalist and introspective positions are needed to make an international pandemic against an international policy and an emergency pandemic.
In January, this article comments that Bill Gates feels optimistic, and with some effort, humanity can avoid it. "In a decade, we can prepare a deadly epidemic if we want to put part of the costs of preparing epidemic defense budgets and weapon systems."
But this will, as Redlener says, is "still visible". Until it is manifested, we will continue to live under gray skies through threatening shady birds.